31 July 2011

 The McClellan Summation index's rate of change (orange) is outside of its 2 std Bollinger Band.  As is the rate of change of the rate of change (acceleration - green line).  Using this info and the VIX below, I closed my shorts Friday at small profits because I thought a resolution would be made and the market would be ramped on Monday.  Also, the current point is above the previous low by a decent amount.  This could be signalling short term strength.

Well, the Bradley Siderograph turning point (was it for gold, or stocks or bonds?  We'll see) has come and went.  It appears that there is some sort of debt "resolution" that has taken place over this weekend.  In a few years, we'll have to raise the debt ceiling again.  This is the problem with money loaned into existence.  It always takes more money than currently exists to pay the interest on what does exist.  Think about it.  It causes the monetary base to need to grow exponentially.

 VIX above 500 day moving average, BUT, closed above 200 day moving average 2 std Bollinger band.  I figured this would serve as some resistance in the short term.

 Nearing oversold in the medium term, but definitely not as bad as the previous peak.  This could be viewed as strength.

Still oversold in the short term.  This is another reason I closed despite the weak day on Friday.

I'm not sure where we head from here.  I'm not buying yet because I still think there will be a shake out even if we bounce hard tomorrow.  I'd like to see my short term indicator bounce positive and then trend lower to make a higher low than this one before I'd buy anything.

"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value - zero."
Voltaire

"To see what is in front of one's nose requires a constant struggle."
George Orwell

28 July 2011

It will be interesting to see if this bottoms before the last bottom and whether or not it has a divergence with the previous index bottom.

Oversold in short term.  The only time substantially higher was during the flash crash for the beginning Greek crisis.

Gold continues to tighten its range.  It does look like it is being drawn towards the top line so although it is hard to estimate when and what value, it looks maybe around $1700 it should wrestle with it again.  I am concerned about the trendline on the bottom, but hey, maybe the deflationists will be right briefly for the second time in twelve years.

"We contend that for a nation to try to tax itself into prosperity is like a man standing in a bucket and trying to lift himself up by the handle."
Winston Churchill

27 July 2011 (United States Power Consumption; Shiller Data Updates)

I went to work and updated some of the favorites:

 This is updated through 2011, but the data only exists for the first three months.  I extrapolated the total by calculating and using the percentage that they made up of the total power usage in 2010.  Seems head and shoulder-ish.

 It looks like we are in the lately annual "middle" spike for March.

This is the chart the comes with the Case Shiller Data.  The three peak pattern seems consistent with previous times.

Notice that the real yield is still less than interest rates in the chart above.  Also notice how historically low the div yield is.

 The McSum looks terrible as I pointed out yesterday.  TSV has a ways to go downward if it wants to and each peak has been progressively lower for almost a year and a half.  Yes, this is the reason I was bearish in February, March, April, May, (not June, I said to buy around 15 June), and now for the medium term.

VIX zoomed in, broke the 500 day, broke my resistance line, sitting on upper bollinger band (usually bullish for markets in the short-term, but I have a feeling it will only be a few days of "relief" once the debt deal passes.

 

Long term VIX shows the resistance of the 500 day EMA for the past three years.

 This is newly tracked.  50 EMA over 200 EMA constitutes hold long in the long term.  Still amazingly high.

 Medium term in negative territory now.

 Short term oversold.  This could be the relief bounce for a few days.

 Buying climaxes getting high again.

 The pathetic breadth of the market is exhibited by the above chart.

 I'm working on the monetary base / CPI data for my own information.  The nowandfutures.com chart works well too, but hides inflection points.

"The ultimate result of shielding men from the effects of folly is to fill the world with fools."
Herbert Spencer