26 June 2011

 Dow from 1977 - 1999.  A great bull market.

Gold from 2005 - 2011.  Notice the tightening lately and my trendline that seemed to broken last week beneath it.  Also notice how far it is above its 200 week moving average.  During the Dow's bull market above, the 200 week moving average served as support a couple times - 1987 and 1990.  In 1990 it was about a 25% decline. 

If my predicted cycles are true for both gold (mimicking the stock bull market from 82 - 99), gold could very well decline 25% from here where it would find support around 1200 which I'm guessing is where the 200 week moving average would be at that time.  However, it is unlikely if the bailout bonanza (borrow till we're rich mentality) continues.

Sorry about stocks on Friday, but as my indicator said, they were overbought in the short-term.