Sunday, November 21, 2010

21 November 2010

Friday had a gap down and then some strength into the close.  The McClellan Summation still declined and is still in a negative trend, but not by very much.  The rate of decline also slowed from Thursday. 

My medium term indicator is holding at around 50% long and has risen the past two days.  My short-term indicator is at around 49% Hold Long and has climbed rapidly from the 16% low from last Tuesday. 

As I sit here drinking my kale, onion, celery, green cabbage, broccoli, and carrot juice (trying to be healthy), I see that the AUDJPY has made a new high on the finalization of the Irish bailout - very encouraging for stock market bulls as this funding carry trade remains positive.  It appears to be at the upper-bound of its ascending channel.  Considering the stock market broke its descending resistance line on the GM day and tested it on Friday, there may be some positive action for the next few days at least - also add-in that it is Thanksgiving week which is perfectly suited for a low-volume melt-up as no humans participate.  While this happens, for the other longer-term bears out there, I like this product to help protect my adrenal glands and mood - also ensure adequate levels of magnesium are ingested to induce relaxation.  US Index futures (NQ, ES) also gapped up tonight on the news.  Dollar is sitting on support, the previous high resistance line. 

Now, we wait for bad news to show up out of Portugal, Spain, Italy, then France, and maybe Germany.  Then UK and the US.

Thursday, November 18, 2010

18 November 2010

The Dow gapped up about 100 pts of the 173 it was up today. It looks like we closed the gap down from Tuesday. It also turned out to be a great day to not be short IRE or AIB. Remember, I closed last week sometime and I was upset that I closed a bit early, but overall, it turned out to be the right decision.

What a great day to coincide for a great performance with GM's SPO (Second Public Offering). Unfortunately, GM could not be short-sold today. However, it still declined 5% intra-day. Fantastic.

So in order to bailout Ireland, more debt was taken on by it and other countries? That sounds like a huge plan for failure. Isn't too much debt what got us into this mess? Extend and pretend.

That is what I don't understand about a lot of this: the failed business models - of sovereigns and the state sponsored companies (TBTFs) - have not been changed, we've just thrown more leverage at them and started to pray more.

No charts. Its late. Short-term indicators are around 72% bearish, but becoming more bullish. Medium term basically unchanged from yesterday. McClellan is in a downtrend still, but had a strong day today rapidly slowing the rate of decline.

Friday, November 12, 2010

That's Ugly

Same with the muni bond funds that all broke through their 200 day moving average yesterday.  Much like they did in 2007 and stayed under until early 2009.

Thursday, November 11, 2010

Pessimism Pervades?

Yahoo Finance headline certainly has it wrong.  Because from the investment perspective, a lot of people are bullish.  Looks like the 2003ers had it right, but that was about it.  1987 and 2000 look pretty dead on from a contrarian perspective.