Thursday, February 28, 2013

28 Feb 2013

 Long term is still sitting on its permanent "high plateau" of wealth effect.
 Contrarian hold longs are high again.  Are they signalling a dead cat bounce or a bottom?
 Medium term has retraced its fall slightly.
 Short term has rallied considerably - this is what generates that contrarian hold long number above.
New highs have still fallen off a cliff when compared to the index.

Unrelated, but I'm getting tired of reading about how bad our health is because of our new diet choices. I used to be a big whole foods guy.  Not so much any more.

People seem to live a lot longer now by consuming more calories.  Sugar can't be all that bad - pure energy - the stuff even has toxins removed by processing with activated charcoal - name another food that has so little toxins.  Teeth only become porous for sugar / bacteria / plaque to accumulate when acid touches them first.  People used to eat salt that would neutralize the acid - that is one missing thing.  And the other big change is consumption of vegetable fat and fake sweeteners.  Other than that, you don't need goji fed piranhas or organic algae fed yak butter.  Just eat enough starch / sugar for energy, enough protein for repair and enough fat for hormones.  Don't mix the three functions up.

Metabolizing fat and protein for glucose (by using stress hormones adrenaline and cortisol) have respiratory quotients less than one.  Any engineer knows that you don't want to operate a machine at a lower efficiency.  Do you run cars on refined fuel or crude?  ALL FATTY ACIDS AND AMINO ACIDS have respiratory quotients less than 1.  Glucose, citric acid, malic acid, fructose, starch, glucoronic acid all have RQs of one or better.

Yea, it feels good to be an adrenaline junky in the short term, until your hands turn cold, your skin looks worse and you lose your sex drive.

Done low carb, paleo.  Still kinda tired.  Done vegan, still not feeling feelings.  Done vegetarian, still have a destroyed gut.  Done high veggies, still have no thyroid.  Give it up.  Tell me how aliens ate because that would be far more useful to how humans should eat.

I know I used to do it, but so tired of reading how morons say we "don't eat like we used to eat." Yea yea, we don't and we live a lot longer being obese than not obese.  People didn't die of cancer or heart disease back then because malnourishment got them first. 

Better to be well-fed or not well-fed?  Move to Africa if you hate calories.  Only in America could we come up with something as perverse as Anorexia when half the world can't afford to eat.

A sweeping captivating question will dominate in 2013: What happened to the United States? The answer cannot be made simple. As preface, the key to comprehension must bring focus to extreme banker thefts in the multiple $trillions, which began in a virtual theft of the bulk of the national home equity in the mortgage bond fraud. The problem is far more pervasive, if any degree of depth is to be grasped. It was the refusal to liquidate the broken sacred banks steeped in criminal activity, the extreme corrosion to the economy from adopted sanctioned urgently requested hyper monetary inflation, the burdensome war costs hidden within the mammoth unfixable federal budget deficits, the compromised Congress whose constituents are lobbyists, the cancerous growth of the state which is realized in higher taxes, onerous regulations, an expansive welfare network, and a forced tiresome war on terrorism that conceals a broad confiscation of gold hoards during a global capture of the narcotics trade, upon which the New York banks are hopelessly dependent. A military element has been prevalent in the breakdown, an extension of the Fascist Business Model into the business sector. It saw impunity of big banks from prosecution, devotion to war, permission of narcotics by the security agencies, the obfuscation of liberty as it vanished, the perversion of patriotism (including honor guards at sporting events), the subjugation of the press, the salute to an aggressive national socialism (often dubbed nazi by the enlightened). Enter systemic failure from a military standpoint.
Jim Willie

Wednesday, February 27, 2013

27 Feb 2013

 An expected bounce from oversold levels.  Fortunately for the pundits, the Dow and S&P didn't decline as much as individual stocks.  Pound that chest and sell them to the public.
Medium term looked ripe for a pause in its decline.

Monday, February 25, 2013

25 Feb 2013

 Short term remains in mostly oversold territory.  Definitely interesting price action today though.
 Amazingly, the medium term still has quite a bit of room to fall.
Buying climaxes managed to make a new high today.  Impressive amounts of selling the last five days after euphoria in many stocks.  This is interesting considering the number of new highs on any day within this rally barely reached 1000 (different stocks can peak on different days) - see post yesterday of new highs.  And of those, almost all (this is near 1000) made a climax move and are lower than five days ago.

Oh, and notice the massive support that showed in gold and silver today.  Quite interesting considering other "risk" assets selling off.

"The USGovt deficits are covered over 80% in volume by the printing press with a Weimar nameplate. Foreign USTBond investors have vacated the auction pits and other financial premises. The reliance upon interest rate derivatives has been exposed, starting last spring and summer 2012 in JPMorgan admissions, in order to keep the absurdly ultra-low official interest rates in place. Enter systemic failure from a financial standpoint.

The cast of leaders has converted treason into a facade of patriotism, as they defecate and urinate on the tree of liberty, preparing their drones and black aircraft for assaults on cities. The battles politically remind a history student of a localized conflict between Nazism and Stalinism, with a surefire blend in targeting the population with a parade of assaults typical of each camp. Anyone who has overlooked that Neo-Con means Neo-Nazi, and the march to Socialism in the other party has a striking tone of Soviet Collectivism, simply misses the big trend in American politics."

Jim Willie

Sunday, February 24, 2013

24 Feb 2013

 Even though the Dow reached back to 14K on Friday, new highs have plummeted.
 Short term is nowhere near its last peak either.
Same for the medium term indicator.

Yes, you could look at these another way and say, this is evidence that the indexes will go higher and these will bounce.  This is entirely possible.  Or you could look at it how I am, as it shows underlying weakness and selling that is masked by the broad indexes.

Gold selling has accelerated after it broke the support I pointed out two weeks ago.  It remains above its needed point to form an inverse head and shoulders.  Silver has broken through its trending support line as well, but it also has a possible inverse head and shoulders.  Once both of these break through their descending peak trendline, it will be off to the races again - this could take time.

"The more we do to you, the less you seem to believe we are doing it."
Dr. Josef Mengele

Thursday, February 21, 2013

21 Feb 2013

 Buying climaxes heading towards all time highs.  It doesn't look good shortly after this happens.  I guess my post from around 1 February saying most stocks have peaked appears to have been true.
 This especially appears evident in this chart.  Many stocks have been falling out of their medium term uptrend since early February.
Short term is nearly oversold.  Yes, really.  This could provide ammo for another try for the top.

"... the benefits of a depreciating currency are not restricted to the government. Farmers and debtors and all persons liable to pay fixed money dues share in the advantage. As now in the persons of business men, so also in former ages these classes constituted the active and constructive elements in the economic scheme… The tendency of money to depreciate has been in past times a weighty counterpoise against the cumulative results of compound interest and the inheritance of fortunes. … By this means each generation can disinherit in part its predecessors’ heirs; and the project of founding a perpetual fortune must be disappointed in this way, unless the community with conscious deliberation provides against it in some other way, more equitable and more expedient."
-- John Maynard Keynes - Essays In Persuasion

Wednesday, February 20, 2013

20 Feb 2013

 Buying climaxes hitting their second peak on this run.  Must be getting close.
Long term is as overbought as it's gonna get.  Kudos Mr. Bernanke.
 Medium term continued its decline today.
Short term fell significantly today and broke out of its EKG-like pattern.
The politicians, Mr. Obama and some banksters / hedge fundsters seem willing to point to their success by looking at the S&P 500.  The bottom pane is the ratio of the S&P to Gasoline prices (ETF proxy isn't perfect).  Yeah, measured in infinitely dilutable paper dollars, you did a fantastic job.  Unfortunately, its declined in real purchasing power by about 50%, but oh yeah, we are "stimulating" our exports by having a weak dollar.  Only, we're not.  We are exporting our inflation by flooding the world with dollars.  I hope someone with a PHD explains this to me.

Kudos Mr. Bernanke, you enriched stockholders -a small percentage of the population that has excess savings (just by the definition of being able to invest)- and impoverished people whose budgets are dominated by food and gas costs.  Trickle up wealth.  Trickle down misery. The S&P has roughly doubled.  Gas prices have tripled.  Print money for your buddies in the government and corporations, but can't seem to print jobs or gasoline, huh?

Gotta love how the Federal Debt to GDP ratio is basically going vertical.  Is something wrong with the transmission?

Your narrow monetary base is certainly leaking to consumers via student loans, new car loans, new home loans.  Once everyone is in debt, who will the debt peddlers push more debt to?  How can it be paid back?  You know it won't.  Pulling forward demand only works with unlimited natural resources.

Tuesday, February 19, 2013

19 Feb 2013

 Will new highs get a new high?
 Medium term has had serious damage when compared to the index.  This looks somewhat like late 2010 and early 2012.  Corrections took time, and varied in depth.
Short term struggling to move upwards.  Quite interesting free market behavior occurring.

"When fascism come to America it will be wrapped in the flag and carrying a cross."
Sinclair Lewis

Sunday, February 17, 2013

17 Feb 2013

 You can see that GLD lost its support line (yellow) which led to some selling in the short term.  We will see if it holds the green support inverse head and shoulders line.
 Silver has sold down to long term support.  If this breaks, it could lead to quite a bit of selling in the short term.  What was the target I posted two years ago?  I don't really remember, but I think it was about 23.
The composite indicator is still near all time highs.  It seems like the trend is slowly changing for the two short and medium term indicators.

Sorry for the lack of posts recently.  Other things have been a lot more interesting than the stock market lately.

"It is incumbent on every generation to pay its own debts as it goes. A principle which if acted on would save one-half the wars of the world."
 Thomas Jefferson

Thursday, February 14, 2013

14 Feb 2013

 Medium term slightly declined today.

 Short term slightly declined today.
SPY found support on the lower trendline today.

Gold and silver are near lower trendline supports.  I will post over the weekend.

Wednesday, February 13, 2013

13 Feb 2013

 Slight decline today in the short term.
Slight decline today in the medium term.

The range is getting increasingly small on the SPY.  It's going to have to fall out of that ascending triangle eventually.

Could gold be forming a long term inverse head and shoulders?  We'll see.

It will have to stay above the 150 - 155 range.

Tuesday, February 12, 2013

12 Feb 2013

 Short term of course has turned back up in the aimless march higher.
Medium term's decline is slightly pausing.

Saturday, February 9, 2013

9 Feb 2013

 Silver continues to coil.  Shorter term view below.
The red line could be broken for another touch of the white longer term trendline from 2008.
 Gold broke its long term trendline from 2008, but this is normal in bull markets before more quickly rising phases begin.  I'm not saying that its not a bad thing that it did or that we will have new rising phase soon.  Just saying its normal.  We need it to break through the yellow trendline.  Short term view below.
If it breaks through the white line, further selling could occur.  The green line is the same as the yellow above.
 This is a collection of long term indicators.  I'm surprised to see there is still a slight decline from recent (2009, 2010, 2011) previous peaks.  The third puts it into context with 2006 / 2007 levels.
We've had slight declines in the short term indicators recently.  The Composite indicator (4th down) includes all time frames.  We are at extreme levels.  The odds of being successful on longs in the near term are dwindling.

Courtesy of
"In a system...where the entire continuity of the...process rests upon credit, a crisis must obviously occur -- a tremendous rush for means of payment -- when credit suddenly ceases and only cash payments have validity. At first glance, therefore, the whole crisis seems to be merely a credit and money crisis. And in fact it is only a question of the convertibility of bills of exchange into money. But the majority of these bills represent actual sales and purchases, whose extension far beyond the needs of society is, after all, the basis of the whole crisis. At the same time, an enormous quantity of these bills of exchange represents plain swindle, which now reaches the light of day and collapses; furthermore, unsuccessful speculation with the capital of other people; finally, commodity-capital which has depreciated or is completely unsaleable, or returns that can never more be realized again. The entire artificial system of forced expansion of the [economy] cannot, of course, be remedied by having some bank, like the Bank of England, give to all the swindlers the deficient capital by means of its paper and having it buy up all the depreciated commodities at their old nominal values. Incidentally, everything here appears distorted, since in this paper world, the real price and its real basis appear nowhere, but only bullion, metal coin, notes, bills of exchange, securities. Particularly in centers where the entire money business of the country is concentrated, like London...the entire process becomes incomprehensible."
-- Karl Marx, "Capital", Volume 3, Chapter 30, "Money-Capital and Real Capital" 

Thursday, February 7, 2013

7 Feb 2013

 Long term is still making new highs.
 Medium term seems to have decisively rolled over.
Short term is bouncing around like its tracking a manipulated market.

I plan to post more charts tomorrow.  Silver seems to have broken down out of its short term upward channel.  Gold sits on long term support and resistance lines.

"Lenin is said to have declared that the best way to destroy the capitalist system was to debauch the currency. By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. By this method they not only confiscate, but they confiscate arbitrarily; and, while the process impoverishes many, it actually enriches some. The sight of this arbitrary rearrangement of riches strikes not only at security but [also] at confidence in the equity of the existing distribution of wealth."

"...By combining a popular hatred of the class of entrepreneurs with the blow already given to social security by the violent and arbitrary disturbance of contract….governments are fast rendering impossible a continuance of the social and economic order of the nineteenth century."
-- John Maynard Keynes - The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1919. pp. 235-248.

6 Feb 2013

Tuesday, February 5, 2013

5 Feb 2013

 The McClellan Summation index is back to near record highs.  TSV and RSI are also both pegged to the utmost bound.
 Short term bounced a little bit today.  The action looks about as wild as it has any time in the past three years.
Medium term is continuing its slight fall as well.

"The media I’ve had a lot to do with is lazy. We fed them and they ate it every day."
Michael Deaver