Monday, April 30, 2012
Here are a few thoughts:
I don't see "why" VIX would have found support where it did the past two days. Seems unfortunately logical that it will go back to its recent lows. But these are the markets, where logic doesn't always, or ever, apply.
It also seems that the indexes will put up a fight trying to make new highs - the Dow is about 80 points off its high from a few weeks ago.
Tomorrow is a Tuesday and the first of the month. Traditionally, those both mean ramp fest.
On the bear side, the Spanish banks have still not tested their 2009 lows. When, not if, is the question for those.
If you want to think that the stock market really finds true valuations for companies, check out a five year chart of HUSA. 2 to 20, 20 to 2.
at 10:41 PM
Sunday, April 29, 2012
Thursday, April 26, 2012
Wednesday, April 25, 2012
Neither are overbought or oversold. For the bulls, it is good that this low in the medium term is above the December 2011 low.
Silver is trying to find support at a long term trendline and its 500 day simple moving average. The comeback today allowed it to hang on to both. Gold is also on a long term ascending trendline from 2009.
at 11:02 PM
Tuesday, April 24, 2012
at 10:35 PM
Monday, April 23, 2012
Sunday, April 22, 2012
Short term at middle ground. Medium term bouncing a little, but remains more oversold than overbought. Sum of all time frames still sitting in positive territory at 61%.
Longer term time frames still show us near upper bounds of the last 6 years. Everyone knows it has been volatile, but check out the magnitude of the positive and negative swings since 2009 and compare those the smaller waves from 2006 to 2008.
I run these indicators against only the S&P500 stocks. I also have others that I run against the Russell 3000 composite. The current readings on those are a little less (8 - 10%) than the S&P meaning there is a little current tendency towards "safety."
at 2:18 PM
Thursday, April 19, 2012
Tuesday, April 17, 2012
Gold and silver have been attempting to hold onto key long term ascending trendlines. They have been successful so far but weakness has been persistent.
at 10:01 PM
Monday, April 16, 2012
at 9:52 PM
Saturday, April 14, 2012
USAGX has continued its retreat. Will it find support at previous highs? Gold and silver still are tracking brent crude fairly well and are about 2 and 4 years, respectively, ahead of the Nasdaq in terms of performance.
at 11:36 AM
Tuesday, April 10, 2012
Short term indicator is oversold. This is not the worst reading in the last three years, but still is bad. Generally around these levels, a bailout (Greece, Ireland, QE2, EFSF, LTRO, ZIRP etc) of some type is rolled out.
at 11:24 PM
Thursday, April 5, 2012
at 10:52 PM
Wednesday, April 4, 2012
Tuesday, April 3, 2012
Gold is sitting near a long term uptrend line.
Best of luck.
at 8:30 PM