Monday, April 30, 2012

30 April 2012

Most shorter term indicators are nearing their upper bounds.  The question will be if they can levitate.  The longest term above (bottom) is not yet in a "bearish' configuration.

Here are a few thoughts:
I don't see "why" VIX would have found support where it did the past two days.  Seems unfortunately logical that it will go back to its recent lows.  But these are the markets, where logic doesn't always, or ever, apply.
It also seems that the indexes will put up a fight trying to make new highs - the Dow is about 80 points off its high from a few weeks ago.
Tomorrow is a Tuesday and the first of the month.  Traditionally, those both mean ramp fest.
On the bear side, the Spanish banks have still not tested their 2009 lows.  When, not if, is the question for those.

If you want to think that the stock market really finds true valuations for companies, check out a five year chart of HUSA.  2 to 20, 20 to 2.

Sunday, April 29, 2012

29 April 2012

 This rally has brought us back to 50% for the medium term indicator.  It is still below both of its most recent previous "peaks.'
Overbought, but not at extreme levels for the short term.  Surpassed several recent peaks and still below that of  13 March.

Thursday, April 26, 2012

26 April 2012

Neither overbought nor oversold in the medium term.
 Nearing overbought in the short term.
Clearly not oversold in the long term.

Wednesday, April 25, 2012

25 April 2012

 Very impressive increase today for the medium indicator.
Not as impressive for the short term.

Neither are overbought or oversold.  For the bulls, it is good that this low in the medium term is above the December 2011 low.

Silver is trying to find support at a long term trendline and its 500 day simple moving average.  The comeback today allowed it to hang on to both.  Gold is also on a long term ascending trendline from 2009.

Tuesday, April 24, 2012

24 April 2012

 Bounce in this today higher than the previous low.  It was not much of a test of the low, and this current value remains slightly less than the previous "peak."
Slight bounce today in the short term indicator.  It is a good sign that this has bounced above the previous low, but it did not give it much of a chance.  I am not sure what the big game changer was today except for after hours with Apple's earnings.  However, these indicators are produced with end of regular trading hours prices.

Monday, April 23, 2012

23 April 2012

Not oversold in short and medium term time frames.

Sunday, April 22, 2012

22 April 2012

Short term at middle ground.  Medium term bouncing a little, but remains more oversold than overbought.  Sum of all time frames still sitting in positive territory at 61%. 

Longer term time frames still show us near upper bounds of the last 6 years.  Everyone knows it has been volatile, but check out the magnitude of the positive and negative swings since 2009 and compare those the smaller waves from 2006 to 2008.  

I run these indicators against only the S&P500 stocks.  I also have others that I run against the Russell 3000 composite.  The current readings on those are a little less (8 - 10%) than the S&P meaning there is a little current tendency towards "safety."

Thursday, April 19, 2012

19 April 2012

Just from looking at some charts, it looks like the crisis is definitely already heated up in Spain.  Italy is close behind, and shockingly France, the Netherlands and Belgium are all also going to be making headlines.

Wednesday, April 18, 2012

Tuesday, April 17, 2012

17 April 2012

 This index hasn't budged much despite the now week old rally.  Could be construed as a good or bad thing for the market.
 Its summation index has rolled over.
 Short term is back nearing overbought levels.  Still lagging previous peak.
 Short term sum index has also rolled over and started to try turning back up.
SPX in terms of VIX had a large breakdown last week pulling it back below peak levels from 2011.  Its currently attempting to gain back what it lost last week.

Gold and silver have been attempting to hold onto key long term ascending trendlines.  They have been successful so far but weakness has been persistent.

Monday, April 16, 2012

16 April 2012

 Stalling in the medium term.
Short term has bounced back to middle ground and its current peak is in line with previous peaks during this downtrend.  Rate of increase slowed today.  Considering that the leaders (AAPL) are finally pulling back, there is a possibility this this pullback is nearly over for the short to medium term.

Saturday, April 14, 2012

14 April 2012 (Gold, Silver, Brent, USAGX Versus Nasdaq

USAGX has continued its retreat.  Will it find support at previous highs?  Gold and silver still are tracking brent crude fairly well and are about 2 and 4 years, respectively, ahead of the Nasdaq in terms of performance.
 Still oversold in the medium term.
 The rollover in this index appears to just be beginning.
 The slight lag in this caused this still to rise Friday.  It is no longer oversold.
Short term summation has made a lower low than March 6th.

Wednesday, April 11, 2012

Tuesday, April 10, 2012

10 April 2012

 Buying climaxes spiking again.
 No serious deterioration in the long term indicator yet.
 Medium term continues its decline.  Nearly oversold (30%).
Short term indicator is oversold.  This is not the worst reading in the last three years, but still is bad.  Generally around these levels, a bailout (Greece, Ireland, QE2, EFSF, LTRO, ZIRP etc) of some type is rolled out.

9 April 2012

Both the medium and short term declined today, but did so at slower rates than last week.  The short term can safely be labeled as oversold.  However, that does not mean to buy.

Thursday, April 5, 2012

5 April 2012

 Medium term broke the 6 March low.
 Short term indicator is not yet at panic (soon to be bailed out) levels.
 Still a huge divergence in my summation index for the medium term.  This is so new that I have no idea if it means anything at all.
Short term is not showing as much of a divergence, but it is notable how it led the way out in the Fall of 2010.  Now, it is mostly lockstep with the Dow.

Wednesday, April 4, 2012

4 April 2012

 Decreased today.
 Decreased.  Need to watch most recent low.
Not oversold in the short term.  Again, need to watch the low from 6 March.

Tuesday, April 3, 2012

3 Apr 2012

Gold is sitting near a long term uptrend line. 
 Silver is a bit farther from its long(er) term line (yellow) and is also near its orange trendline. Both appear to be forming triangles.

 Slight decline today in the medium term indicator.  This persistent non-movement is a bit bizarre.
 Slight decline today in the short term indicator.  It actually looks like the peaks and lows are forming a "triangle" in this indicator too.
VIX did "break-out" of this trendline connecting the March peak with the early October peak.  It wasn't strong, but it did close above it.  We don't have much room to the downside unless we revert to what was considered normal before 2007, the 10 - 15 range.

Best of luck.