Monday, October 31, 2011

31 Oct 2011

 TSV historically low with price fairly high.  Not always a sign of an exact bottom, but may be near a short term one.
TSV almost maxing out.  It should hit the top tomorrow.

Saturday, October 29, 2011

29 Oct 2011

Trying out new software.  I was able to put my custom indicators in so I don't have to update Excel every night.  I don't know if I like it yet because it feels different.  Sorry if you don't like the change.
 New high and new low percents.
 Here is my long term indicator which I was commenting before that i was upset I didn't have the data.  The shocker here is that this is negative much like what happened in mid 2007.  Also neat:  check the negative divergence between the last two peaks.
 My medium term indicator getting quite overbought.
 My short term indicator is overbought.  Looking through historical data of it, looks like it does spend quite a bit more time positive than negative.  Apparently this should give me a glass half full perspective.  It doesn't.
TSV still nearing its maximum value for the Summation index in the medium time frame.

Have a good weekend.

Thursday, October 27, 2011

27 Oct 2011

Doesn't quite look like last year, does it?  My long term indicator below exhibits the same behavior.
Cumulative 4 week high / low had a very strong day today.
Still very negative in the long term.  Making progress though.
About as overbought as it gets in the short term. 
Nearing very overbought levels in the medium term

Wednesday, October 26, 2011

26 Oct 2011

Nearing 20,000 views.  Thanks for finding my work worth checking.

 This continues to march upwards.  TSV is getting high, but still not at historical highs.
 The sum of these daily moves are what makes the summation index.  So, you could almost say this is the derivative of it or it is the integral of this.  Either way, I don't expect many closes over that recent high which should does imply that the rate of increase likely won't go up much more in the summation index.  However, if this incrementally has bigger days than the negative days, then both will stay elevated. 
 This turned in favor of hold long a bit today.

This increased today in favor of hold long.  Getting quite overbought, but not at historical highs yet.

Tuesday, October 25, 2011

25 Oct 2011

 ST HS turned up today.
 Could gold have actually bottomed?  Looks like it could decline further as it did in 2008, but it might not be very large of a decline.
 Long term indicator has started to creep upwards, but not much change here.
Medium term increased today, but at a slower pace.  We will need to watch where it rolls over.

Monday, October 24, 2011

24 Oct 2011

 TSV is floored to the roof for the shortest term oscillation.  There are only a few times where it stayed up there substantially long.  See the white box in 2009.
 This closed at a value of 317.  There have been only three higher closes since 1986.  On 7/26/10, it closed at 336.  On 1/6/09, it closed at 345.  On 1/2/09, it closed at 324.  The white line just lags the candles by about three days.
 Close to overbought again - only about 7% from all time highs.
This is quickly reaching overbought levels.  Will we go just to a bit over 70% like we have since last summer or will we push up to 80%?  Who knows.  NYSI still overbought.

I will admit that I am not the best at following my own rules or charts.  For instance, I pounded the table that the medium term and short term were oversold for pretty much all of early August, and that we should not be initiating new shorts.  I bought some stuff, dumped too early.  Then the indicators gave me a negative divergence (hold short medium term peak reached a lower peak - Oct- than previous - Aug - while the Dow made a new low) in early October.  A perfect fat pitch in combination with the McClellan Summation index making a higher low which is something I always watch for.  Disobeying facts in order to follow emotions and thoughts seems maybe more fun, but it is not profitable.  I guess I did cover 80% of my shorts on the exact day of the low, but it was pennies for profits.  And I didn't buy then.  Anyways, just wanted to get that out there.  I'm sure others feel this way.  Whatever you do, don't ever panic buy or sell because of the crowd.  I have learned that.  Good luck.

Sunday, October 23, 2011

23 Oct 2011

Was flipping through some of the leaders' charts and saw this.  Place your bets on which way we go.  Don't forget to look at RSI and TSV.

Saturday, October 22, 2011

22 Oct 2011

 Dividend yield is slowly rising.  I hinted at traditional buy / sell signals.  Clearly, it was different in the 90s and this recent rally.
 Three descending peaks?

 No room for TSV or Stoch in the fastest oscillators I use.
 Could this be similar to early August 2010?  Advance decline was a bit more bullish then (flat compared to previous peak).
 McClellan Summation index has negative divergence on MACD for the last three peaks.  Fast RSI is overbought.  Another view of the RSI of this:  NYSI nearing 90

 TSV still has a bit room in the longest term.  Not much.  This RSI is slower than the previous as well.  Not as overbought, but it still is.
 My short term indicator also looks similar to early August 2010 along with the Dow.  We will have to see if we get a negative divergence on its peaks - might not matter as it didn't last fall though.
 Not quite overbought in my medium term indicator. 
 Is this similar to May 2008?  Either way, we have moved 3000 pts from the bottom which is similar to most other moves.  TSV still not overbought at this oscillation rate (medium).  If it stops soon, peak is still negatively divergent from previous peaks.
 McClellan oscillator still hanging out at extreme levels as marked by my white line.
Dow in terms of VIX (still hasn't made new recent lows despite new highs in the indexes) has a negative divergence when compared to its price.  I looked for a few other times where price exceeded its recent peak or came close and Dow:VIX was clearly heading lower.  They are marked.

So, in summary, it looks like we may have a little time before a selling cycle starts.  However, we do seem to be past the sweet spot of this bull cycle.

The TED Spread seems to be overbought, but it is still at levels that existed right before the Greece crisis really hit the front pages in May 2010.  I honestly don't know if it was just causation or correlation.  I don't know much about credit markets.$TED&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p22308049328

"Lenin is said to have declared that the best way to destroy the capitalist system was to debauch the currency. By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. By this method they not only confiscate, but they confiscate arbitrarily; and, while the process impoverishes many, it actually enriches some. The sight of this arbitrary rearrangement of riches strikes not only at security but [also] at confidence in the equity of the existing distribution of wealth."

"...By combining a popular hatred of the class of entrepreneurs with the blow already given to social security by the violent and arbitrary disturbance of contract….governments are fast rendering impossible a continuance of the social and economic order of the nineteenth century."
John Maynard Keynes - The Economic Consequences of the Peace, 1919. pp. 235-248.

Thursday, October 20, 2011

20 Oct 2011

 Hold long increased again today in the medium term.
 Hold short increased in the short term today.
This is showing that a lot of the short term price action is not correlating (price is saying to hold short) with the technical indicators BOP, TSV, MACD.

Wednesday, October 19, 2011

19 Oct 2011

 Percent of stocks over 40 day moving average.  Didn't beat July high.
New highs are looking pretty weak.

 About flat from yesterday.
Rolling over? Number of stocks over 200 moving average.
Heading back to the mean.

Tuesday, October 18, 2011

18 Oct 2011

 Think this is really just going to quit without a bounce?
 Same for this?
 Short term hold long declined on the day despite a strong day in the indexes.
Medium term hold long went up again today.