Wednesday, October 31, 2012

31 Oct 2012

The bounce appears to be slowing.
 Medium term has finally turned up a little.
Long term still overbought.

Saturday, October 27, 2012

27 Oct 2012

 Medium term is still not oversold.
The slight bounce in the short term has continued as volatility has subsided some.

Friday, October 26, 2012

25 Oct 2012

A slight bounce in the short term. Remember, in order to buy, we like to see this make a positively divergent low.

I am not voting this year.  However, I did hear that Romney is saying that we don't want the US to become Greece.  What a foolish statement. The US issues debt that it can repay in its own sovereign currency.  Greece does not have the luxury of printing its own money to repay creditors.  Yes, in a way, the US is already Greece..inflating away debts is a form of default.  Maybe even more evil than outright default.  An outright default causes pain to the banks that lent the government money via fractional reserve banking.  The ongoing camouflaged inflationary default robs citizens, the poor and elderly the most heavily, who don't know any better.  At least Greece is honest about their intentions Mitt.  What good is the right to vote with no one to choose?

"Is there any reason why the American people should be taxed to guarantee the debts of banks, any more than they should be taxed to guarantee the debts of other institutions, including the merchants, the industries, and the mills of the country?"
Senator Carter Glass during Senate debate on the Banking Act of 1933 (Glass-Steagall Act) [source: Rixey Smith and Norman Beasley, Carter Glass: A Biography (1939)]

Wednesday, October 24, 2012

24 Oct 2012

 At 40% this is not oversold, however, it typically slightly lags market moves.
Slight decline today.  VIX is up against key resistance.

"The modern banking system manufactures money out of nothing. The process is perhaps the most astounding piece of sleight of hand that was every invented. Banking was conceived in inequity and born in sin . Bankers own the earth. Take it away from them but leave them the power to create money, and with a flick of a pen, they will create enough money to buy it back again . Take this great power away from them and all great fortunes like mine will disappear, for then this would be a better and happier world to live in . But if you want to continue to be the slaves of bankers and pay the cost of your own slavery, then let bankers continue to create money and control credit."
Sir Josiah Stamp, president of the Bank of England and the second richest man in Britain in the 1920's, speaking at the University of Texas in 1927

Tuesday, October 23, 2012

23 Oct 2012

 Nearing historically oversold levels in the short term.

The medium term still has some room to fall.

And, most importantly, for perspective, here is the long term.  Not oversold at all.

"And how did Union aim to xtract these … alleged “ills” of our state?
But as the Boardman’s anthem says, Nea So Copros is the world’s only rising sun! Pre-
Skirmish East Asia was the same chaos of sickly democracies, democidal autocracies, and
rampant deadlands that the rest of the world still is! If the Juche had not unified and
cordonized the region, we would have backslid to barbarism with the rest of the globe! How
can any rational organization embrace a creed that opposes corpocracy? Not only is it
terrorism but it would be suicide. 
All rising suns set, Archivist. Our corpocracy now smells of senility."
David Mitchell, Cloud Atlas

Monday, October 22, 2012

22 Oct 2012

The eagle never lost so much time as when he submitted to learn of the crow.
William Blake

Saturday, October 20, 2012

20 Oct 2012

I will update this with charts throughout the weekend.

I had a comment yesterday asking for some help, and an email from a friend asking for me to add a chart to my Current Long Term Outlook page.  I'd like it if anyone else has various requests or suggestions on how to make things better to let me know.

It should be no surprise that the shortest term is now pretty much oversold.  However, the medium and long term indicators have some room to fall.

What if the differences between social strata stem not from genomics or inherent xcellence or even dollars, but merely differences in knowledge? Would this not mean the whole Pyramid is built on shifting sand.

Friday, October 19, 2012

19 Oct 2012

Get out.  I know I may seem late, but I'm not.

Thursday, October 18, 2012

18 Oct 2012

The composite indicator remains at elevated levels.
The percent of stocks above their 40 day moving average remains weak compared to the Dow.

Learn what you are and be such.
Pindar, Odea (5th Century BC)

Wednesday, October 17, 2012

17 Oct 2012

I created this to try finding moves that occurred faster than the technical indicators moved.  Sometimes it marks decent relative peaks, other times, bottoms.
 New highs lagging on this rally.
 Can't get much more overbought in the longest term I track.
 Medium term severely lagging the index.
Short term is back near overbought conditions.

"Unlimited power in the hands of limited people always leads to cruelty." 
Alexander Solzhenitsyn

Tuesday, October 16, 2012

16 Oct 2012

Both short and medium term summation indexes are beginning to lag the Dow.

Monday, October 15, 2012

15 Oct 2012

The shortest oscillator is getting back into pretty high territory.

From what I can tell, the S&P broke its upward trendline.  Maybe it wants to go back and tag it before heading lower.

Self-knowledge is a dangerous thing, tending to make man shallow or insane.
Karl Shapiro

Sunday, October 14, 2012

14 Oct 2012

 The shortest time frame has bounced a little from lows.  Still a ways to go for the medium and long term indicators.
 Is the crisis beginning to spread to Japan? MTU may be headed back to lows.
 The Nasdaq 100 advance decline line has a significant divergence (no new high during this rally) from QQQ (green).
The Russell 3000 advance decline line exhibits the same behavior.

"The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt"
Bertrand Russell

Friday, October 12, 2012

Wednesday, October 10, 2012

10 Oct 2012

Getting oversold in the shorter terms.  The composite index in the bottom pane seems to be beginning a trend change.

Buying climaxes are on the rise again.

Every normal man must be tempted, at times, to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats.
H. L. Mencken 

Tuesday, October 9, 2012

9 Oct 2012

Nobody can hurt me without my permission.
Mahatma Gandhi

Monday, October 8, 2012

8 Oct 2012

Not much change today.  The fourth indicator down I think shows a trend change is occurring.  This valley is lower than previous ones.

Friday, October 5, 2012

4 Oct 2012

Yes, I'm posting this on the 5th, but the data is up to date only as of the close yesterday.

The eagle never lost so much time as when he submitted to learn of the crow.
William Blake, "Proverbs of Hell" from The Marriage of Heaven and Hell (1790)

Wednesday, October 3, 2012

3 Oct 2012

In the shorter time frames, we are in a neutral position.  In the longer time frames, we are showing a little weakness in that the current peak is lower than the past peaks.  This weakness will not present itself until it does - usually in the form of a worse sell-off once (if, haha) it finally occurs.

VIX appears to remain subdued by the red and blue trendline I drew.  The 50 day moving average is also right there.  Once this pattern resolves, we should have a decent sell signal (if) when it comes.

"When nothing seems to help, I go look at a stonecutter hammering away at his rock perhaps a hundred times without as much as a crack showing in it. Yet at the hundred and first blow it will split in two, and I know it was not that blow that did it, but all that had gone before."
Jacob Riis

2 Oct 2012

Monday, October 1, 2012