Tuesday, March 29, 2011

29 March 2011

Friday, March 25, 2011

25 March 2011

 Moneystream very divergent.  Doesn't necessarily matter until the index starts to go with it, but it is a data point to be aware of.  Need fundamentals (less liquidity) to change and a lower high on the indexes before bears should get excited and bulls should worry.

SPY failed to close gap from March 9th today.  It needs to get to 132.39 in order to do so.
This had a nice follow-through today for the bulls.  As I've pointed out since the market bottomed last week, the TSV and my short-term indicator were very low, and a bounce was to be expected.  The bounce has come.  Now, we watch to see how strong it is internally.  The fact that this index had a lower high than previous and a lower low than previous shows internal market weakness - we do not know how high it will go here, but there is no denying that it is time it should head up.  However, using this index, I prefer (better confidence) to buy when the low is a higher low - opposite for shorting.

I cannot say this enough:  just because there is internal market weakness does not mean the indexes will be weak or not make new highs.  In order to take advantage of this info, one must trade according to strength in individual stocks.  Buy strong in long cycles, short weak in short cycles.  Get out when the cycle changes direction.
I'm not going to brag too much about this one because it is still only a percent or so increase after 20% of destruction since the high last year.

I do do quite well with my FOREX predictions, but no, I'm not rich in money terms.  Check historical posts.  Euro still looks weak like I commented on last week.  I was a little early.
 Medium term indicators both at 50%.
Hold long short term actually declined today showing some behind the scenes weakness.  I updated this around 1300 EDT today and this was up. After close, it ended up being down about 2% for the day.

Have a great weekend.  I'll be doing taxes and doing my annual 2010 review of trade successes and failures.  Sounds terribly fun.  I already know I should have held SVM (WYNN too) longer - looks weak now though, but it will be fine over the next five years.

"To buy when others are despondently selling and sell when others are greedily buying requires the greatest fortitude and pays the greatest reward."
-- Sir John Templeton

Tuesday, March 15, 2011

15 March 2011

TSV outside of 1st std.  Moving average catching up.

Hold-short at 81%.  Reasonable spot for a short-term bounce.
Hold short at 61% in the medium term.  Up there, but not too high to be strange.

Nikkei up 4.92% on more central banking (BOJ) monetary creation.  When will people lose all faith in a system that allows a certain entity to create as much "money" as they want while everyone else has to work for that "money"?  It is fun and feels safe while it lasts and the party has been good, but eventually this system will have to be buried because it the main tool does not represent anything productive - like labor.  And no, I don't have the answer - gold has warts too.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."
-- Friedrich Hayek, "The Fatal Conceit"

"To combat depression by a forced credit expansion is to attempt to cure the evil by the very means which brought it about; because we are suffering from a misdirection or production, we want to create further misdirection- a procedure which can only lead to a much more severe crisis as soon as the credit expansion comes to an end."
-- Fredrich Hayek, 1933

Friday, March 11, 2011

Thursday, March 10, 2011

10 March 2011

Percent of stocks two standard deviations below 200 day moving average has quite a bit of room.  TSV (middle) looks like a positive cycle wants to begin.
Same as above, but 40 day moving average.
Hold long at around 31%.  Almost short-term oversold.
Hold long at 49% for the first time since November.

Good luck.

"What we achieve inwardly will change outer reality."
-- Plutarch

9 Mar 2011

Hold long increased yesterday, but rate of change slowed.

That's all.

Monday, March 7, 2011

7 March 2011

Rate of change negative again...despite QE2.  Can't force a horse to drink or force people to borrow.
Real Interest Rates still heading towards zero.  Bearish for gold/silver, but it is still negative, which overall is positive for the metals.
GDX struggling to make new highs while gold/silver both do.  Still about 10% within high from 2008.  That SHOULD serve as support.
FCX, one of the leaders, doesn't look great.  If it breaks the 09 - Present trendline, this could be merely a massive dead-cat bounce infused by unprecedented liquidity.
Dollar at a critical juncture.  At two supports and barely has to move upwards to beat overhead resistance line (yellow).
Ford (F) broke long-term support line today.  However, knowing bull markets, there is no reason this won't make another thrust at the high.  Trends die slowly - not just with one try the other direction.

Weekly advance-decline at support line and very near upper Bollinger Band.
Mclellan trending downward again.  The non-confirm of this high and the last high shows weakness.  However, this thing has managed to turn around any time weakness has shown up the last few months.  Taken as a pure chart perspective, this is weak.  The circles show the amount of time its spent overbought recently.  Notice the "flat-line" getting shorter and then into nothing.
Hold Long Short-term at 45%
Hold Long Medium-term at 57%   

Copper at support trendline.  Note the bearish Moneystream in the middle.  

I've pretty much decided to quit trying to guess where silver stops.  Its fundamentals (extreme supply shortage, with increasing demand, still low real and nominal price) that I highlighted for a long-time on this blog have overcome technicals for the meantime.  I hope that you are along for the ride like I am, but I'm still not buying here - I don't chase hot markets, ever.

"An imbalance between rich and poor is the oldest and most fatal ailment of all republics."
-- Plutarch

"Panics do not destroy capital; they merely reveal the extent to which it has been previously destroyed by its betrayal into hopelessly unproductive works".
-- John Stuart Mill

Wednesday, March 2, 2011

2 March 2011

Short term (3EMA over/under 7SMA):  Hold long went up todayto around 57%.  I updated the Dow's price today, and I never noticed how well the 50 day moving average of "Hold long" corresponded to the Dow until today.  However, it no longer seems to since late November.
 Medium term (8EMA over/under 20 EMA):  HL decreased today, but its rate of decline slowed. This once correlated quite well too.
Contrarian Hold-long (short-term from above):  This sums the amount of stocks that price is saying to hold-long, but technical indicators (TSV, MS, MACD, BOP) are negative.  Up until 2/3/2010, this worked quite well for finding bottoms - not at all what I created it for.  Lately it has been picking up premature bounces before another leg-down.  However, the market has bottomed soon after these spikes with the exception being in May when it spiked rapidly on the heels of the Greek bailout.

I wish I could pick a direction given what I just presented, but I cannot.  Considering we are still quite high, I'd say the odds are higher that we go down.  But I thought we were high for most of December, January and February.

I don't agree with everything said in this song, but overall, I like it and always have.

"When buying and selling are controlled by legislation, the first thing to be bought and sold are legislators."
-- P.J. O'Rourke