Short term (3EMA over/under 7SMA): Hold long went up todayto around 57%. I updated the Dow's price today, and I never noticed how well the 50 day moving average of "Hold long" corresponded to the Dow until today. However, it no longer seems to since late November.
Medium term (8EMA over/under 20 EMA): HL decreased today, but its rate of decline slowed. This once correlated quite well too.
Contrarian Hold-long (short-term from above): This sums the amount of stocks that price is saying to hold-long, but technical indicators (TSV, MS, MACD, BOP) are negative. Up until 2/3/2010, this worked quite well for finding bottoms - not at all what I created it for. Lately it has been picking up premature bounces before another leg-down. However, the market has bottomed soon after these spikes with the exception being in May when it spiked rapidly on the heels of the Greek bailout.
I wish I could pick a direction given what I just presented, but I cannot. Considering we are still quite high, I'd say the odds are higher that we go down. But I thought we were high for most of December, January and February.
I don't agree with everything said in this song, but overall, I like it and always have.
"When buying and selling are controlled by legislation, the first thing to be bought and sold are legislators."
-- P.J. O'Rourke