Wednesday, February 23, 2011

23 February 2011

Ok, the big question:  What are the metals going to do?  Will unrest continue to propel them?  Will a "risk-off" scenario lead to the traditional safe-havens, the dollar and treasuries, or will it continue to propel the metals?

I don't have the answer unfortunately.  I do know that if oil prices continue to rise, it should continue to press prices upwards of everything that requires oil to do - like mining.  I also would guess that if the Fed or any other developed country raises rates, the commodity complex would feel a shock.

I've been trying to find tangible evidence of what "causes" precious metals to rise.  Obviously, supply and demand.  But what else?  Lowering of interest rates, politically bad economic decisions (bailouts, social programs), negative real interest rates, what type of investment cycle the world is in.  Most of these haven't changed much recently.  Real interest rates (using shadowstats CPI) have become less negative.

I have found that miners tend to lead the metals up/down. 

SLW in terms of Silver 
Please note the disconnect between the recent high of silver and this ratio chart.
GDX in terms of gold
Similar, but gold has been able to continue upwards.

I would imagine that in the event of absolute panic, miners would sell off with all stocks, but the metals would do much better.

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