Sunday, July 31, 2011
Well, the Bradley Siderograph turning point (was it for gold, or stocks or bonds? We'll see) has come and went. It appears that there is some sort of debt "resolution" that has taken place over this weekend. In a few years, we'll have to raise the debt ceiling again. This is the problem with money loaned into existence. It always takes more money than currently exists to pay the interest on what does exist. Think about it. It causes the monetary base to need to grow exponentially.
I'm not sure where we head from here. I'm not buying yet because I still think there will be a shake out even if we bounce hard tomorrow. I'd like to see my short term indicator bounce positive and then trend lower to make a higher low than this one before I'd buy anything.
"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value - zero."
"To see what is in front of one's nose requires a constant struggle."
at 10:29 PM
Thursday, July 28, 2011
"We contend that for a nation to try to tax itself into prosperity is like a man standing in a bucket and trying to lift himself up by the handle."
at 10:06 PM
Wednesday, July 27, 2011
I went to work and updated some of the favorites:
It looks like we are in the lately annual "middle" spike for March.
This is the chart the comes with the Case Shiller Data. The three peak pattern seems consistent with previous times.
Notice that the real yield is still less than interest rates in the chart above. Also notice how historically low the div yield is.
The McSum looks terrible as I pointed out yesterday. TSV has a ways to go downward if it wants to and each peak has been progressively lower for almost a year and a half. Yes, this is the reason I was bearish in February, March, April, May, (not June, I said to buy around 15 June), and now for the medium term.
Long term VIX shows the resistance of the 500 day EMA for the past three years.
The pathetic breadth of the market is exhibited by the above chart.
I'm working on the monetary base / CPI data for my own information. The nowandfutures.com chart works well too, but hides inflection points.
"The ultimate result of shielding men from the effects of folly is to fill the world with fools."
at 10:21 PM
Tuesday, July 26, 2011
Short term fell substantially today. Neither oversold nor overbought.
at 11:27 PM
Monday, July 25, 2011
On the debt ceiling: Any person who thinks the US will pay back its debt in present valued dollars is a complete moron.
It will do one of two things:
1) As it is currently doing, a camouflaged default by continuing to keep borrowing / "printing" (really borrowing from Fed cartel banks). Good for rich people and middle class - can invest to somewhat protect from inflation. Gold goes up.
2) Do an old fashioned default. Very bad for banks that have lent to the US. Gold goes up.
at 11:05 PM
Thursday, July 14, 2011
Tuesday, July 12, 2011
at 11:18 PM
Monday, July 11, 2011
"The roots of violence are wealth without work, pleasure without conscience, knowledge without character, commerce without morality, science without humanity, worship without sacrifice, and politics without principals."
at 9:17 PM
Sunday, July 10, 2011
“Commodity bull runs have lasted 15-20 years...We have got another nine to 17 years to go.”
Jim Rogers (now probably 5 to 9 left).
at 10:13 PM
Thursday, July 7, 2011
And as I always like to do for fun, 7 + 31 + 2 + 1 + 1 = 42 = 6 * 7 = 2 * 3 * 7. You get almost all the biblical numbers out of it besides 12. 42 also is important in Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy as the Answer to Everything. Ha!
I'm sure you can add it other ways and come up with stuff too.
"We economic hitmen have really been the ones responsible for creating this first truly global empire." - John Perkins, Confessions of an Economic Hitman
at 10:43 PM