Sunday, July 31, 2011

31 July 2011

 The McClellan Summation index's rate of change (orange) is outside of its 2 std Bollinger Band.  As is the rate of change of the rate of change (acceleration - green line).  Using this info and the VIX below, I closed my shorts Friday at small profits because I thought a resolution would be made and the market would be ramped on Monday.  Also, the current point is above the previous low by a decent amount.  This could be signalling short term strength.

Well, the Bradley Siderograph turning point (was it for gold, or stocks or bonds?  We'll see) has come and went.  It appears that there is some sort of debt "resolution" that has taken place over this weekend.  In a few years, we'll have to raise the debt ceiling again.  This is the problem with money loaned into existence.  It always takes more money than currently exists to pay the interest on what does exist.  Think about it.  It causes the monetary base to need to grow exponentially.
 VIX above 500 day moving average, BUT, closed above 200 day moving average 2 std Bollinger band.  I figured this would serve as some resistance in the short term.
 Nearing oversold in the medium term, but definitely not as bad as the previous peak.  This could be viewed as strength.
Still oversold in the short term.  This is another reason I closed despite the weak day on Friday.

I'm not sure where we head from here.  I'm not buying yet because I still think there will be a shake out even if we bounce hard tomorrow.  I'd like to see my short term indicator bounce positive and then trend lower to make a higher low than this one before I'd buy anything.

"Paper money eventually returns to its intrinsic value - zero."

"To see what is in front of one's nose requires a constant struggle."
George Orwell

Thursday, July 28, 2011

28 July 2011

It will be interesting to see if this bottoms before the last bottom and whether or not it has a divergence with the previous index bottom.
Oversold in short term.  The only time substantially higher was during the flash crash for the beginning Greek crisis.

Gold continues to tighten its range.  It does look like it is being drawn towards the top line so although it is hard to estimate when and what value, it looks maybe around $1700 it should wrestle with it again.  I am concerned about the trendline on the bottom, but hey, maybe the deflationists will be right briefly for the second time in twelve years.

"We contend that for a nation to try to tax itself into prosperity is like a man standing in a bucket and trying to lift himself up by the handle."
Winston Churchill

Wednesday, July 27, 2011

27 July 2011 (United States Power Consumption; Shiller Data Updates)

I went to work and updated some of the favorites:

 This is updated through 2011, but the data only exists for the first three months.  I extrapolated the total by calculating and using the percentage that they made up of the total power usage in 2010.  Seems head and shoulder-ish.
 It looks like we are in the lately annual "middle" spike for March.

This is the chart the comes with the Case Shiller Data.  The three peak pattern seems consistent with previous times.
Notice that the real yield is still less than interest rates in the chart above.  Also notice how historically low the div yield is.
 The McSum looks terrible as I pointed out yesterday.  TSV has a ways to go downward if it wants to and each peak has been progressively lower for almost a year and a half.  Yes, this is the reason I was bearish in February, March, April, May, (not June, I said to buy around 15 June), and now for the medium term.
VIX zoomed in, broke the 500 day, broke my resistance line, sitting on upper bollinger band (usually bullish for markets in the short-term, but I have a feeling it will only be a few days of "relief" once the debt deal passes.

Long term VIX shows the resistance of the 500 day EMA for the past three years.
 This is newly tracked.  50 EMA over 200 EMA constitutes hold long in the long term.  Still amazingly high.
 Medium term in negative territory now.
 Short term oversold.  This could be the relief bounce for a few days.
 Buying climaxes getting high again.

 The pathetic breadth of the market is exhibited by the above chart.

 I'm working on the monetary base / CPI data for my own information.  The chart works well too, but hides inflection points.

"The ultimate result of shielding men from the effects of folly is to fill the world with fools."
Herbert Spencer

Tuesday, July 26, 2011

26 July 2011

 TSV never got that high (did beat the half way point) but the index itself looks terrible as its recent peak was below its last despite the indexes being almost back at old highs.
 Medium term looks weak, but not oversold or overbought.
Short term fell substantially today.  Neither oversold nor overbought.

Good luck. 

Monday, July 25, 2011

25 July 2011

 Medium term hold long trying to bounce.
 VIX seems to have broken out of my triangle.  This doesn't mean it will rally hard right away, but it does mean that the spikes will likely no longer going to be decreasing in height.
Somewhat overbought in the short term.

On the debt ceiling:  Any person who thinks the US will pay back its debt in present valued dollars is a complete moron. 

It will do one of two things:

1) As it is currently doing, a camouflaged default by continuing to keep borrowing / "printing" (really borrowing from Fed cartel banks).  Good for rich people and middle class - can invest to somewhat protect from inflation.  Gold goes up.

2)  Do an old fashioned default.  Very bad for banks that have lent to the US.  Gold goes up.

Thursday, July 14, 2011

14 July 2011

 These are updated as of last night's data.

This will be my last post for a week and a half.  I will be on vacation.  I might post something if something big happens.  VIX is still above my long term resistance trendline.  We'll see what today brings.

Best of luck.

Tuesday, July 12, 2011

12 July 2011

 Becoming oversold in the short term.
The market makers better save this one before it gets out of control.  I don't know if they really have the ability though.

 Buying climax spiking again.
Contrarian hold short spiking.  (Price down while strength indicators remain up)  Not necessarily the best indicator, but thought this spike was worth noting.

Monday, July 11, 2011

11 July 2011

 Medium term hold long moved down a bit today.
 VIX could flash a GTFO signal soon.  Today it closed just below my long-term resistance line.  It could be tomorrow or if it continues tightening in this triangle, my estimate is the end of the month - which happens to coincide with the debt ceiling "resolution."
Hold long in the short term moved substantially down today to around 40%.  This is a lower low than the previous low, but it is still higher than the low around June 15th.  Where this bottoms will help us determine how many days left this Ponzi Scheme has.

"The roots of violence are wealth without work, pleasure without conscience, knowledge without character, commerce without morality, science without humanity, worship without sacrifice, and politics without principals."
Mahatma Gandhi

Sunday, July 10, 2011

10 July 2011 (Gold Vs. Silver Vs. USAGX Vs. Nasdaq Tech Vs. Gold 70s Vs. Silver 70s Bubbles)

Some of the data was last updated 7/1.  Others are up to date as of Friday's close.

 Not extremely overbought in the medium term.
 Friday's sell off worked off some of the overbought condition in the short term.
Some of the data was last updated 7/1.  Others are up to date as of Friday's close.

“Commodity bull runs have lasted 15-20 years...We have got another nine to 17 years to go.”
Jim Rogers (now probably 5 to 9 left).

Thursday, July 7, 2011

7 July 2011

 Hold long at 72% in medium term.
 Hold long at 80% in short term; not new recent highs though.
I still have my eyes on the 7/31 Bradley Siderograph turning point.  It appears euphoria has definitely set in on the stock market.  Could VIX rally at 7/31 or will it go down?

And as I always like to do for fun, 7 + 31 + 2 + 1 + 1 = 42 = 6 * 7 = 2 * 3 * 7.  You get almost all the biblical numbers out of it besides 12.  42 also is important in Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy as the Answer to Everything.   Ha!

I'm sure you can add it other ways and come up with stuff too.

Good luck.

"We economic hitmen have really been the ones responsible for creating this first truly global empire." - John Perkins, Confessions of an Economic Hitman

Tuesday, July 5, 2011

Monday, July 4, 2011

4 July 2011

 VIX barely hanging on to my trend line support.  Notice the lower bollinger band is very close too.
 Quickly heading to overbought levels (still 20% to go) in the medium term.
Overbought in short term.