Monday, July 25, 2011

25 July 2011

 Medium term hold long trying to bounce.
 VIX seems to have broken out of my triangle.  This doesn't mean it will rally hard right away, but it does mean that the spikes will likely no longer going to be decreasing in height.
Somewhat overbought in the short term.

On the debt ceiling:  Any person who thinks the US will pay back its debt in present valued dollars is a complete moron. 

It will do one of two things:

1) As it is currently doing, a camouflaged default by continuing to keep borrowing / "printing" (really borrowing from Fed cartel banks).  Good for rich people and middle class - can invest to somewhat protect from inflation.  Gold goes up.

2)  Do an old fashioned default.  Very bad for banks that have lent to the US.  Gold goes up.

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