Wednesday, August 29, 2012

29 August 2012

“Our politics, religion, news, athletics, education and commerce have been transformed into congenial adjuncts of show business, largely without protest or even much popular notice. The result is that we are a people on the verge of amusing ourselves to death.” 
Neil Postman

Monday, August 27, 2012

Sunday, August 26, 2012

Thursday, August 23, 2012

23 Aug 2012

Nothing is oversold yet. Significant divergences in all time frames.  A lot of media is saying the stock market went down because the Fed disappointed.  If the stock market went up, the media would have said that it was because of a successful Fed meeting.

Either way, it's sad that an economy (market) depends solely upon how much new money is being created to perform large scale asset purchases.  It's more sad that large scale asset purchases are inflationary, and inflation most heavily affects the most poor. Speaking of, let's look at gold and silver.
 GLD is sitting on top of its long term resistance trendline.  Notice that since it broke my previous more sharp trendline, it has rallied.  However, stochastics, RSI and the upper bollinger band (3std) may show that this is too much too fast.

The same applies to silver.

Considering interest rates aren't as negative as they were and the CPI adjusted monetary base is contracting, I'm tending to believe that these moves will take a breather and consolidate again before breaking above my trendlines.  However, anything is possible.

Wednesday, August 22, 2012

22 Aug 2012

 Long term still overbought and divergent from previous peak.
 Same for medium term.
Short term is not extremely overbought, but definitely has been weaker since June.

"The process by which banks create money is so simple that the mind is repelled."
John Kenneth Galbraith

Tuesday, August 21, 2012

20 Aug 2012

Big divergences across all time frames. This should be interesting.  August has a week and a half left.  September is usually one of the weakest months and is historically very weak in an election year.

Monday, August 20, 2012

Thursday, August 16, 2012

16 Aug 2012

I'm in the process of moving (where I live, not the blog) so posts will probably not be nightly.  I'll try though.

 Medium term still lagging the previous peak.
Same for short term.

The indexes are finally challenging their highs.  The junkiest stocks are rallying in force.  This tells me this is almost over.  It may last through the end of August, but the strength is deteriorating.  I'm not calling a top yet..

Tuesday, August 14, 2012

14 Aug 2012

 Medium term has turned down.  The indexes seem to want to challenge highs though.
Short term has also turned down. The comment above still applies.

"There is nothing so disastrous as a rational investment policy in an irrational world."
John Maynard Keynes

Monday, August 13, 2012

13 Aug 2012

 Medium term summation index is still struggling.
Short term is performing a little better.

Gold is falling away from its upper resistance line recently.
Silver is falling away from its upper resistance line recently.  If either of these lose the bottom support line, lower prices will likely come.

 VIX is as low as its been during the last four years.  Some people are intellectually dishonest and fail to mention that it reached a low of 10 in 1993, 1994, 1995 and 2005, 2006, 2007.  Anything can happen.
Neither overbought nor oversold in my multiple time frame indicators.

"When plunder becomes a way of life for a group of men in a society, over the course of time they create for themselves a legal system that authorizes it and a moral code that glorifies it."
Frederic Bastiat, 1850

Sunday, August 12, 2012

12 Aug 2012

 Medium term is still lagging its previous peak substantially.  However, it has yet to turn.
Short term declined a little Friday.

Friday, August 10, 2012

10 Aug 2012

 The medium term indicator is inching back towards overbought territory, and still shows a significant divergence from the previous peak.
The short term indicator has slowed its ascent.

The VIX is near 4 year lows.  It can stay low for a while during low volume, low movement melt-ups.  However, the odds are getting lower for this to be a good buying entry point.

Thursday, August 9, 2012

8 Aug 2012

 Judging by the low amount of new highs, the stock market has worse leaders than most Western governments.
 Medium term summation index still lagging the previous peak.
Short term has overtaken its recent peak.  Relative to previous highs, it is lagging the Dow a little bit.

Remember when the Bernank was claiming QE2 helped small cap companies by pointing to the performance of the Russell 3000?  He can't make the same claim for Operation Twist as the Advance / Decline line for the R3000 has been abysmal.

Really, when will people get it that all this easing that the financial media and stock monkeys plead for is just transferring new money to the elite rich bankers (or to the government) who unload their shoddy assets to the Fed?  How can anyone with a brain celebrate that or accept that that is morally acceptable?

Tuesday, August 7, 2012

7 Aug 2012

6 Aug 2012

 Medium term surpassed its recent high in a positive development.
Short term still lagging previous high.

Sunday, August 5, 2012

5 Aug 2012

 Short term had a solid rebound on Friday with the indexes.  It is about a sharp turnaround as you will find on the above chart.  Just quickly glancing at it, there was one in March 2011 and a few around November 2011.  Still a bearish divergence between it and the Dow.
Medium term even got jolted upwards on Friday. On the bullish side, this most recent "low" was higher than both previous and the same can be said for the short term chart.

The VIX still has a little room to fall and remains subdued underneath the long term resistance trendline I pointed out on Friday.  This is bullish until its not.  Considering we don't have clear signals of being overbought or oversold, the current situation is risky, and generally, not worth large taking risks to either side.  I will let you know as soon as this bipolar market ends and gives some clarity.

"Even in a time of elephantine vanity and greed, one never has to look far to see the campfires of gentle people."
Garrison Keillor

Friday, August 3, 2012

3 Aug 2012

 Not oversold at all in the long term.  In fact, maybe still a little overbought.
 Medium term is generally neutral.  This latest seeming bifurcation point downward does not look good.
Short term is not oversold either.

The only thing that can give the bulls some hope is that the VIX still has to pass through a long term key resistance trendline.  The yellow trendline connects to the 2008 high.  The green trendline is only the peak from last year and this year.

Wednesday, August 1, 2012

1 Aug 2012

 Divergence in new highs with the rally since June.
 Percent of stocks over the 200 day moving average remains weak.  Also a divergence on this rally and overall from the peak in February.
This is the percent of stocks over the 40 day moving average.  As you can see, it has been weakening since early July.  It is amazing how the Dow and S&P can make everything look so rosy, isn't it?

"We want a society where people are free to make choices, to make mistakes, to be generous and compassionate. This is what we mean by a moral society; not a society where the state is responsible for everything, and no one is responsible for the state."
Margaret Thatcher