Monday, December 30, 2013

30 Dec 2013

 Long term remains overbought.
 Medium term rose slightly today.  Lagging previous peaks.  Divergent with the Dow's action.
Short term slightly declined today.  Remains slightly overbought.

"Hyman Minsky developed an economics of financial instability, of instability bred by stability itself…Minsky’s approach, very different from Godley’s, is conceptual rather than statistical. A key virtue is that it puts finance at the center of economic analysis, analytically inseparable from what is sometimes called real economic activity, for the simple reason that capitalistic economies are run by banks. And, of course, his second great insight is into the dynamics of phase transitions: the famous movement from the hedge position to the speculative position to the intrinsically unsustainable, doomed to collapse ponzi position which arises from within the system and is subject actually to formalization in the endogenous instabilities of non-linear dynamical models.

To grasp what Minsky is about, it seems to me, is to go immediately beyond the coarse notion of the “Minsky moment,” a concept which implies falsely that there are also non-Minsky moments. It is to recognize that the financial system is both necessary and dangerous, that strict financial regulation is both indispensable and imperfect."
-- James Galbraith, 5th annual Dijon conference on Post Keynesian economics, Copenhagen, May 2011

Sunday, December 29, 2013

29 Dec 2013

 McClellan Summation remains in uptrend since Mid December.  RSI working off oversold conditions.
 Medium term lagging previous peaks heavily.

Short term remains overbought.

Saturday, December 21, 2013

20 Dec 2013

 Long term overbought.
 Medium term neutral.
Short term overbought.

Sorry again for the loss of data - the most recent readings are accurate as of the close today.  I am probably going to get a new computer or reinstall the OS to fix this.

Wednesday, December 18, 2013

18 Dec 2013

Today's action was as expected due to seasonal tendencies and the subdued nature of my medium term indicator and the McClellan summation index.  We are not overbought in the short term.

We remain overbought in the long term.

My computer crashed again and Excel failed to autosave my data.  If you guys wanna buy me a new computer, I'd appreciate it.

Tuesday, December 17, 2013

Monday, December 16, 2013

16 Dec 2013

 Gold rests on a long term trendline.
 I finally have this going back longer.  Now you can see my long term indicator's behavior at the previous two peaks.  It looks like it can stay high for a long time and even show weakness when the Dow climbs.
 McClellan summation index shows divergences with the Dow.  Currently, we've been getting weaker except for the peak in 2012.
 Medium term indicator slightly oversold.
 Short term indicators neither oversold nor overbought.

Sunday, December 15, 2013

15 Dec 2013

 Long term overbought
 Short term bounced some on Friday.  Remains oversold.
Medium term is starting to get oversold.  Note the trend change of higher lows since December of 2012 has been somewhat broken.  We'll see if we challenge the lows from earlier this year.

Silver seems to be finding support at its long time resistance level from 2010 and prior.  I'm waiting to see if it break through its descending resistance trendline.

Thursday, December 12, 2013

12 Dec 2013

 Long term remains very overbought and lagging previous values.
 Medium term not yet oversold.  Declining quickly.
Short term broke previous low.  This is normally not a good sign.  However, we're nearly oversold.

As a predominantly bearish blog, I've begun to wonder if my readership falling off is a contrarian signal.  This fall off despite me identifying EVERY good buying point the last three years with my medium term indicator.

Wednesday, December 11, 2013

11 Dec 2013

 Long term remains overbought.
 Medium term broke down today.
Short term as well.  We'll see if it can build off it's previous low or go lower.

Gold and silver seem to have found support at the same place again.  Once they break their downtrend lines, I will recommend them as buys again.

Tuesday, December 10, 2013

10 Dec 2013

 Medium term slightly declined today.  Neutral.
Short term rallied today and is neutral.

These somewhat subdued values may give room for the typical Christmas through New Years rally for short term traders.

Monday, December 9, 2013

9 Dec 2013

 Long term remains elevated.
 Medium term lagging the Dow price.
Short term bouncing from oversold levels.  Lagging previous peaks.

Sunday, December 8, 2013

8 Dec 2013

 Medium term neutral.
Short term rallied hard and now sits at 36%.

Long term remains overbought.

Thursday, December 5, 2013

5 Dec 2013

Medium term is neutral.  I marked some trends I see in the data that might finally be changing.
Short term isn't extremely oversold yet.  Initiating new short sales here is becoming more risky.

Wednesday, December 4, 2013

4 Dec 2013

 Buying climaxes nearing all time highs.
 Long term remains insanely overbought.  Really hasn't even been neutral since Summer 2012.
 Medium term is neutral.
Short term is nearing oversold levels.

Tuesday, December 3, 2013

3 Dec 2013

 Buying climaxes rising again.
 Medium term neutral.
Short term nearly oversold.

Sorry for the ridiculous step function plots.  I lost a lot of data and just used the last value I had as a constant for half the values and the most recent number for the other half of the values.  The numbers for today are accurate.

Monday, December 2, 2013

2 Dec 2013

Short term not yet overbought.  Medium term and longer terms remain elevated..

Sunday, December 1, 2013

1 Dec 2013

Short term getting overbought.  Medium, long term and composite remain at upper bounds.