Sunday, September 30, 2012

30 Sept 2012 (US Energy Consumption)

Saturday, September 29, 2012

29 Sept 2012 (Gold vs Silver vs Oil vs USAGX vs Nasdaq)

Gold and silver are trending with oil pretty well.

I hope to put up my normal charts later today.  Sorry for the format changes.  Trying to drive some more ad revenue.

Friday, September 28, 2012

27 Sept 2012

VIX appears to have temporarily been beaten down by my trendline from the other night.  We still are a little low in the short term.

"Our government...teaches the whole people by its example. If the government becomes the lawbreaker, it breeds contempt for law; it invites every man to become a law unto himself; it invites anarchy."
Supreme Court Justice Louis D. Brandeis

Thursday, September 27, 2012

26 Sept 2012

Thought I posted this last night.  These results are for yesterday.  Not updated for today yet.

Oversold in the shortest term.  The longer term indicators are still quite elevated.

Tuesday, September 25, 2012

25 Sept 2012

Short term is the only one close to being oversold.  I would not say it is at panic levels though.

VIX is still beneath the white trendline.  The red trendline goes back to 2008.

"When God desires to destroy a thing, he entrusts its destruction to the thing itself. Every bad institution of this world ends by suicide."
Victor Hugo

Sunday, September 23, 2012

23 Sept 2012

Not many bargains left out there.
 Medium term has started what looks like a descent.
Short term is actually getting a little oversold.  Will the indexes make another try at those highs?

"Gold will not always get you good soldiers, but good soldiers can get you gold."
Niccolo Machiavelli

Thursday, September 20, 2012

20 Sept 2012

Other sites charge money for this indicator.  There were a lot of blow-off tops last week.  Out of the 1030 new highs made last week, 696 are below their close five days ago.

"To combat depression by a forced credit expansion is to attempt to cure the evil by the very means which brought it about; because we are suffering from a misdirection or production, we want to create further misdirection- a procedure which can only lead to a much more severe crisis as soon as the credit expansion comes to an end."
Fredrich Hayek, 1933

"You can always count on Americans to do the right thing—after they’ve tried everything else."
Winston Churchill

19 Sept 2012

 Medium term went down a little today.
 Short term continues its slow decline.
Some long term resistance trendlines on the VIX.

And one of my favorite quotes.  Thanks Keynes.
"By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. By this method, they not only confiscate, but they confiscate arbitrarily; and, while the process impoverishes many, it actually enriches some. The sight of this arbitrary rearrangement of riches strikes not only at security, but at confidence in the equity of the existing distribution of wealth. Those to whom the system brings windfalls . . . become 'profiteers', who are the object of the hatred of the bourgeoisie, whom the inflationism has impoverished not less than the proletariat. As the inflation proceeds . . . all permanent relations between debtors and creditors, which form the ultimate foundation of capitalism, become so utterly disordered as to be almost meaningless."
John Maynard Keynes, "The Economic Consequences of the Peace", pages 220-223 (1919).

Tuesday, September 18, 2012

18 Sept 2012

 Long term is working its way up into overbought territory as well.
 Medium term has flatlined.
Short term has slowly descended.

This provides a little bit more context since it goes back to 2009.  We are nearing the previous highs of 2012 for the percent of stocks over their 200 day moving average.  Notice the descending peaks since 2009 and the overall extreme current value.

"When you recall that one of the first moves by Lenin, Mussolini, and Hitler was to outlaw individual ownership in gold, you begin to sense that there may be some connection between money, redeemable in gold, and the rare prize known as human liberty."
Congressman Howard Buffett (Father of Warren Buffett) from a 1948 issue of the Commercial and Financial Chronicle )

17 Sept 2012

Haven't shown this one in a while.  Here are a few more timeframes.  Check out the composite indicator that sums all timeframes.  Can't get much higher, but can stay elevated for sometime if it chooses.
 Short term has turned down the last few days.
Medium term is showing some signs of slowing.

Today I signed up for a TWIC card from the TSA.  They made me agree that if I committed a felony that I would turn in my card.  Classic.

Sunday, September 16, 2012

16 Sept 2012

 Now the question becomes how long will it stay elevated at these levels.  Plus, as you can see, it can have divergences with the Dow itself like in much of 2010.  This shows behind the scenes weakness.
Short term is looking a little weaker.

VIX is pegged to lows.

I don't know what else there is to look forward to - both Fed and ECB pledging to print as much as possible.  Now, we just have a bunch of stuff that can go wrong.  Gas prices rising, food prices rising, riots, unrest, fiscal cliff, cost push inflation eroding margins.  Remember, all printing does is cut the real assets into smaller pieces, it doesn't increase the amount of pieces.  Can't print oil, can't print lumber, can't print concrete.  I really don't know how the ECB is going to get Spanish bond yields under control.  Rates are supposed to rise to increase demand.  They will end up having to buy everything...with German money.

Thursday, September 13, 2012

13 Sept 2012

Is it different this time?
Is it different this time?

I really don't know what will happen to stocks, but they are overbought right now.  The Fed is clearly desperate, and I don't see what upside in the future they can surprise with except announcing a larger amount.

Yes, the Fed is unleashing money supply hyperinflation.  But they need to.  3% money supply growth relies on more and more dollars to create constant growth that money supply must go exponential.  Considering all the money lent/created by the banks at interest that was created from essentially 1982 until now must be paid back with something, you always need an ever growing money supply to pay it back otherwise the banks go bankrupt as students, deadbeat car owners renters, and deadbeat homeowners renters are forced to default because they make minimum wage.

Instead of banks having to take losses, Bernanke simply prints up new digits to cover their bets gone wrong. Guess what?  They got to make all the money from those loans during the bubble years.  There is no risk left.  Which also means there are no rewards.  No risk also means moral hazard.  Profits were privatized.  Losses socialized.  This represents the worst of socialism, fascism and capitalism.  Only in America where people have been overdrugged and overentertained to the point of where real life has become boring could this happen.

This also allows the government to get unlimited money at low interest rates.  This facilitates using the police and military to keep people in order if feces hits the fan.

In summary, it is a perpetual government and bank bailout.  And investors celebrate the feeling of security.  Trade freedom for security, you will get neither.

Yes, this is robbing savers of purchasing power as it gets eroded by inflation.  Yes, this is theft.  Yes, it is counterfeiting.  Yes, it is illegal for private citizens to do this.  However, it is not illegal for our central bank and their private member banks - see the primary dealers list.

Needless to say, this bothers me, and I might be more sad than I am angry.  How did we get here?  The land of the free, the home of the brave?

I wish you the best of luck.  I hope you heeded my advice and bought some gold and silver the past few years.  I recommend at least 10% of your liquid assets be in physical gold and silver.

"To combat depression by a forced credit expansion is to attempt to cure the evil by the very means which brought it about; because we are suffering from a misdirection or production, we want to create further misdirection- a procedure which can only lead to a much more severe crisis as soon as the credit expansion comes to an end."
Fredrich Hayek

Wednesday, September 12, 2012

12 Sept 2012

Will Bernanke announce further currency dilution tomorrow?  Who knows.  Will he do it sometime in the future?  Most definitely.  We have been monetizing the debt for a long time before we had a cool name like Quantitative Easing for it.  Gold is up around 10% since my note on it breaking its pattern.  Silver is up around 25% in that same time.  This was when Draghi promised to print as many Euros as possible to enable government deficit spending in order to save the value of the Euro.  What unique times.

A lot of people talk about needing "One Nation Under God" on our money.  However we never ask the following:  Would God want his name on a currency diluted to buy votes, bailout fellow cronies, or drone-bomb third world countries?

Tuesday, September 11, 2012

11 Sept 2012

 Will it reach its previous peak?
Slight rolling over in the short term.

“One of the great attractions of patriotism—it fulfills our worst wishes. In the person of our nation we are able, vicariously, to bully and cheat. Bully and cheat, what’s more, with a feeling that we are profoundly virtuous.” Aldous Huxley

Monday, September 10, 2012

10 Sept 2012

 Although a lagging indicator, there still exists a significant divergence between this and the previous peak.
 Medium term is looking like a battered boxer that keeps getting back up to try again.  Eventually, it won't get back up.
 Short term is looking almost mechanical as of late.
In addition to the huge divergence between the Russell 3000 and its advance decline line, here is the divergence between the Nasdaq 100 and its advance decline line.   Is it only Apple left?

"In times of change learners inherit the earth; while the learned find themselves beautifully equipped to deal with a world that no longer exists."
Eric Hoffer

Sunday, September 9, 2012

9 Sept 2012

 Passed its previous peak.  Overbought territory again.
Passed more recent peaks.  Also overbought.

Friday, September 7, 2012

Wednesday, September 5, 2012

5 Sept 2012

Finally reached 50,000 hits.  Thank you for the support.  I truly hope you find value in this blog even if it is using me as a contrarian indicator.

I'm on the road so I can't post my custom charts.

 There is some weakness between this peak and last.  However, it looks like this wants to try turning up again in the shortest term.  The trendline remains intact.

VIX is pushing to two standard deviations despite the indexes falling in a very controlled manner.  This is odd.

Good luck.

"Constant development is the law of life, and a man who always tries to maintain his dogmas in order to appear consistent drives himself into a false position."
Mohandas Gandhi

Monday, September 3, 2012