Wednesday, October 27, 2010

No Post

McClellan broke downward today.  Who knows if stuff will get ramped tomorrow for POMO to reverse this trend.  I don't really care. The days are numbered.

I personally think the globalists (those who support building a bureaucratic empire, taking from one to give to another, and making "the good of society" become the purpose for any individual's life) are more incestuous with Wall St. than the Republicans.    Of course, this is not true in all cases - just look at McCain or any other statist. No, I'm not hinting at outright premeditated evil by these folks.  In fact, the opposite might be true.  Unfortunately, as history has shown, spoiling people ruins people.  "The road to hell is paved with good intentions."

Rallying the market has tried to be the daily "Dancing with the Stars" to distract the public from the fact that they are being fleeced through higher prices and joblessness to keep the establishment from changing.  Since that hasn't worked, Republicans will win most seats, and the markets will likely get hammered.  QE2 - 9000 might slow it, but those effects will have diminishing returns eventually as well.

I strictly adhere to neither party because I think the system is a farce.  However, I do vote for individuals that share my belief system.

Lot's of big name people (Gross, Grantham, Orszag) appear to be catching on that monetary policy manipulation only changes the leverage of an economy and doesn't actually improve it.  Interesting development.

Silver manipulation charges are finally being brought to court.  This is something I brought up almost a year ago and a lot of others did before me.

Update:  dollar hit most recent high and has reversed slightly as of 2236 EDT.  That high needs to be taken out.

Best of luck.

Monday, October 25, 2010

Short-Term Chart Updates

Against all odds, it looks like this thing wants to start climbing again.  It is still below recent highs, but not by much.  The TSV has a negative divergence (middle area), but this can exist for some time like in April.  Note that it currently has a negative divergence from the highs in early May despite some of the indexes (Nasdaq 100, DIA) beating it.  I assume this could also be closed if we continue to get more gaps (yellow lines and one more from today) than the Tube.

 Check out the insane height on that moving average.  I forgot the US stock market was made-up entirely of companies that found the cure for cancer.  I wouldn't say this has been defeated yet.  It can certainly levitate if it wants to.
 The new highs are sad to watch.  The indexes (especially Nasdaq 100) have mostly tagged or beat their April highs, but new (260 trading day = 1 calendar year) highs are barely half of what they were in April.  I assume this divergence can be undone if everything keeps getting ramped, but it has not yet.
 Usually I don't share this one or really use it.  This is basically stocks that have prices going one way (using the short-term indicators I use below) while indicators I use (TSV, MS, MACD, BOP) are 100% the opposite way.  It has been climbing, but usually is better at finding dead-cat bounces much like the Europe bailout spike seen on the chart.  It is interesting that it is seemingly climbing while we are making new highs on the indexes.
This moving average is as high as it was during the April run-up.  The blue-line has managed to stay stronger than the Viagra four-hour erection.  As if that is a bad thing!

 The Nasdaq 100 may be strong with AAPL, GOOG, AMZN, PCLN, NFLX, but the judging from the Nasdaq advance/decline line, it has less leadership than the G7.
 It is pretty much do or die time for the dollar.  If it craps its pants and breaks through this support and the one lower, it might get to the point where it going down is not good for stocks (long-term, it is not because commodity prices - production inputs go up more), but who knows in this perverse universe.

TXN (Texas Instruments) beat estimates and then lowered guidance through the end of the year and was down after hours.  However, its going to take a bigger news story than this.  According to the Bradley Siderograph, today was a turning point.  I'm not going to bet on it, yet. 

Update:  Oh, yeah.  VIX was positive today.  Huh?

Wall Street people learn nothing and forget everything.
Benjamin Graham

Tuesday, October 19, 2010


I posted last week that the dollar had broken lower support following reading Denninger's post.  That was a case of seeing the tree before the forest (paying too much attention to intraday moves, not the sum of intraday moves).  Plus, I didn't do my own due diligence.  It really never broke the main support.  I apologize, but if you were just now becoming a bear on the dollar after a 15% decline (or the 33% decline this decade), you are already late to the party.  I've seen this three bottom pattern on other time scales and in many markets.  If it comes to fruition, dollar bears beware.  See the bottom of this post for one of the Euro and the Swiss Franc, but over a much shorter time-span.  However, I don't think that any of the fiats will be substantially stronger than hard assets, if at all.

Yesterday's move in the McClellan was erased and then some today.  We've had redness show up several times in this index the past few weeks only to be overcome the next day by a green posting.  We will have to see if it happens again tomorrow.  If it does, more divergences will build which will eventually have to become undone.  Its current price of 2645 is pretty damn high by any measure.

Best of luck.