Thursday, January 19, 2012

19 Jan 2012

To use my bird analogy again, it appears the last of the birds are finally landing in the new location before the leading birds take off again.

It seems the  last of the skeptical bulls are finally being sucked into long positions.  It is a shame that they are about three months late - hope takes a much longer time to build than panic.  Sector rotation has almost ended as money has left some of the leading stocks in stalled positions while the most hated have rallied. 

I check my blog's visitor stats daily.  Maybe I am obsessed.  I always find that around turning points, my viewership begins to fall off substantially.  I was scoffed at on other blogs for saying that we were bottoming in December and AAPL was going to make a new high.  Is it because people start to think "this idiot is always wrong, I am just going to buy/sell" as I consistently tell them to look the opposite way that the market is pointing?  Likewise, it has fallen off substantially this week, and the end of last.  Once we start to fall, viewers will come back again.    Would we prefer to be lied to and told to just go with the flow?

 TSV (middle) not there yet.  RSI overbought as you would expect.  Still forming a lower peak than the previous peak.
 My composite indicator at the bottom is showing significant strength as almost every time frame is being levitated.  We are against 1.5 std bollinger bands.  The 2 std are sometimes negative, which I don't consider accurate so I don't use them.
 Overbought in medium term.  Heading towards previous peak.  Only a few peaks higher than that.
 Short term still overbought.
VIX still has some room to the downside, but is within a tightening descending triangle pattern that could explode upwards.  The Euro is at the upper edge of its descending channel.  Gold (using PHYS) doesn't have room in its descending channel, silver (using SLV - don't know what happened to PSLV, maybe reversion) not much, and GDX/GDXJ (at resistance trendline) look fairly weak again.

"The propensity to swindle grows parallel with the propensity to speculate during a boom... the implosion of an asset price bubble always leads to the discovery of frauds and swindles"
Charles P. Kindleberger


  1. Scott,

    Thanks for another insightful post. In response to your readership falling off at turning points, I recall reading an article a few years ago that discussed whether people watch the news for either "confirmation" or "information". Most folks prefer confirmation (of their existing beliefs) over information. That's because really good information forces one to rethink their beliefs. That's one of the reasons that I follow your blog: it makes me think about alternative ideas and underlying technical reasons as to which direction the markets will go next.

  2. Thank you for the kind words. Best of luck in reaching your goals.