Wednesday, November 30, 2011
We still haven't gotten a buy signal from the McClellan Summation Index. I am glad that my short term indicator got me out of short sales last Monday and Tuesday at profits.
"The only thing we learn from history is that we learn nothing from history."
-- Friedrich Hegel quotes (German Philosopher (1770-1831)
If this is not clear to you yet, you aren't paying enough attention.
"Once public opinion is convinced that the increase in the quantity of money will continue and never come to an end, and that consequently the prices of all commodities will not cease to rise, everybody becomes eager to buy as much as possible and restrict his cash holdings to minimum size… If the credit expansion is not stopped in time, the boom turns to crack-up boom: the flight into real values begins, and the whole monetary system founders."
-- Ludwig von Mises (1949)
at 10:30 PM
Monday, November 28, 2011
Sunday, November 27, 2011
Friday, November 25, 2011
Tuesday, November 22, 2011
SPY has nearly met my initial 117.5 target and it doesn't seem panic wants to come like it did during the summer judging by the numerous VIX break out failures despite an inverse head and shoulders. Also, TLT and TLO are still lagging the peaks.
Panic could come, but I guess I don't care - I already made my decision (no, I'm still not bullish in the long term - or even medium term). I got out of my shorts because we hit my initial target, we are oversold in the short term, I don't feel like playing with the stock market over Thanksgiving, and the days around Thanksgiving are usually very light trading days which can be easily pushed upwards.
Best of luck. Happy Thanksgiving. Enjoy your families.
at 10:49 PM
Monday, November 21, 2011
As you can see (or maybe not) by the top three charts, we are getting a little oversold in the short term, but nothing extreme yet. The medium term (bottom) still has some room to go.
The SP-500 closed just above its 500 day simple moving average today. This moving average should put up a fight as it was support in 2010 and most of 2011.
at 11:50 PM
Saturday, November 19, 2011
Much like the first Great Depression (they didn't decline as much in the other 30's declines after the initial plunge - I can't find the article now, but I saw it about two years ago), the mining stocks are still weathering the storm pretty well after the initial panic (2008). Notice the long term support trendline we may have lost from 2008, and the channel we have been forming a plateau base.
Hope everyone is having a good weekend. I usually don't post on weekends, but I think that is when most people are doing research so I just put this up.
at 1:07 PM
Thursday, November 17, 2011
Best of luck. Remember, it is just the financial markets. The sun still shines, plants still grow wonderful food, people that want to work will still work, and nature has provided all the beauty (other humans, waterfalls, birds, plants, grass, planets, stars) we could ever need.
The falling apart of the financial market economy might cause people to rediscover relationships, conversation, good food, and enjoying nature.
"Don't go around saying the world owes you a living. The world owes you nothing. It was here first."
at 11:05 PM
Wednesday, November 16, 2011
Right click and click view image to get a bigger view. Sometimes the click doesn't work.
Beware - lots of charts saying similar things - I don't know why I keep making them all when they essentially show the same thing, but whatever. Holy Grail Syndrome, I'll call it.
As you probably know, I love this indicator as the timing devices I put on it. Top: Pretty much near historical highs. All of which came on the back of unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus. Check out the bottom RSI. Can't really get much higher huh? Middle: TSV could get higher, but notice it is hitting its second std, something that rarely happens as you can see.
Silver at 23 would be a gift. You can sure bet the money guns will come blazing then. I'm actually terrified of that.
"The ideas of economists and political philosophers, both when they are right and when they are wrong, are more powerful than is commonly understood. Indeed, the world is ruled by little else. Practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influences, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist. Madmen in authority, who hear voices in the air, are distilling their frenzy from some academic scribbler of a few years back... soon or late, it is ideas, not vested interests, which are dangerous for good or evil."
-- John Maynard Keynes, "The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money"
"... the benefits of a depreciating currency are not restricted to the government. Farmers and debtors and all persons liable to pay fixed money dues share in the advantage. As now in the persons of business men, so also in former ages these classes constituted the active and constructive elements in the economic scheme… The tendency of money to depreciate has been in past times a weighty counterpoise against the cumulative results of compound interest and the inheritance of fortunes. … By this means each generation can disinherit in part its predecessors’ heirs; and the project of founding a perpetual fortune must be disappointed in this way, unless the community with conscious deliberation provides against it in some other way, more equitable and more expedient."
-- John Maynard Keynes - Essays In Persuasion
"By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. By this method, they not only confiscate, but they confiscate arbitrarily; and, while the process impoverishes many, it actually enriches some. The sight of this arbitrary rearrangement of riches strikes not only at security, but at confidence in the equity of the existing distribution of wealth. Those to whom the system brings windfalls . . . become 'profiteers', who are the object of the hatred of the bourgeoisie, whom the inflationism has impoverished not less than the proletariat. As the inflation proceeds . . . all permanent relations between debtors and creditors, which form the ultimate foundation of capitalism, become so utterly disordered as to be almost meaningless."
-- John Maynard Keynes, "The Economic Consequences of the Peace", pages 220-223 (1919).
"There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million can diagnose."
-- John Maynard Keynes, "Economic consequences of the peace"- Unseen Hand, page 57
It is going to happen because it must.
at 10:05 PM
Monday, November 14, 2011
Everyone has been talking about the triangle forming. Considering the massive tail-wind in the market as judged by the McClellan Summation Index, I could see us breaking up out of it only to fail soon after. I guess no one knows.
at 10:24 PM
Sunday, November 13, 2011
at 8:55 PM
Friday, November 11, 2011
Wednesday, November 9, 2011
Tuesday, November 8, 2011
at 10:59 PM
Monday, November 7, 2011
Sunday, November 6, 2011
at 10:46 PM
Wednesday, November 2, 2011
Slight increase in HL today.
at 11:11 PM