Wednesday, November 30, 2011

 Well, some things never change.  The herd is very temperamental and has a very short memory because here we are back at exuberance levels in the short term. 
However, in the medium term, this is a positive development considering the consecutively lower peaks. 

We still haven't gotten a buy signal from the McClellan Summation Index.  I am glad that my short term indicator got me out of short sales last Monday and Tuesday at profits.

"The only thing we learn from history is that we learn nothing from history."
-- Friedrich Hegel quotes (German Philosopher (1770-1831)

If this is not clear to you yet, you aren't paying enough attention.
"Once public opinion is convinced that the increase in the quantity of money will continue and never come to an end, and that consequently the prices of all commodities will not cease to rise, everybody becomes eager to buy as much as possible and restrict his cash holdings to minimum size… If the credit expansion is not stopped in time, the boom turns to crack-up boom: the flight into real values begins, and the whole monetary system founders."
-- Ludwig von Mises (1949)

Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Monday, November 28, 2011

28 Nov 2011

Nearing overbought in the shortest term I track.  Haha.  Remember, we like to take positions on testing of lows/highs of these indicators.

Sunday, November 27, 2011

27 Nov 2011

As you can see we are oversold in the short term and getting there in the medium term.  The composite indicator (all time frames) is not yet oversold.  The indexes are bouncing off these lows tonight and are up 1%.

Friday, November 25, 2011

25 Nov 2011

 Medium term hold short rapidly rising still.
This dog-legged up with the fall on Wednesday.  Looks like I was quite early.  Oh well.  This being my bailout/rumor indicator, it looks like something must come soon as this rises to near 90%.

Tuesday, November 22, 2011

22 Nov 2011

 Gold stochastics (bottom) and TSV (middle) have mostly bottomed.  Still on strong white trendline with support at yellow if necessary.
 Becoming Oversold in the medium term.
Oversold in short term.

SPY has nearly met my initial 117.5 target and it doesn't seem panic wants to come like it did during the summer judging by the numerous VIX break out failures despite an inverse head and shoulders.  Also, TLT and TLO are still lagging the peaks. 

Panic could come, but I guess I don't care - I already made my decision (no, I'm still not bullish in the long term - or even medium term).  I got out of my shorts because we hit my initial target, we are oversold in the short term, I don't feel like playing with the stock market over Thanksgiving, and the days around Thanksgiving are usually very light trading days which can be easily pushed upwards.

Best of luck.  Happy Thanksgiving.  Enjoy your families.

Monday, November 21, 2011

21 Nov 2011

I hope these are clear enough for you.

As you can see (or maybe not) by the top three charts, we are getting a little oversold in the short term, but nothing extreme yet.  The medium term (bottom) still has some room to go.

The SP-500 closed just above its 500 day simple moving average today.  This moving average should put up a fight as it was support in 2010 and most of 2011. 

Saturday, November 19, 2011

19 Nov 2011

Much like the first Great Depression (they didn't decline as much in the other 30's declines after the initial plunge - I can't find the article now, but I saw it about two years ago), the mining stocks are still weathering the storm pretty well after the initial panic (2008).  Notice the long term support trendline we may have lost from 2008, and the channel we have been forming a plateau base.

Current status in the short and medium term.  Looks like we are getting quite low in the short term so if you are wanting to initiate short sales, I, as a perfectionist, would wait for a short term bounce  However, it may not matter a whole lot in the grand scheme of things.

Hope everyone is having a good weekend.  I usually don't post on weekends, but I think that is when most people are doing research so I just put this up.

Thursday, November 17, 2011

17 Nov 2011

 Still not oversold, using recent measures, in the short term.
Meant to post this last night.  This just shows the lack of new highs on the latest rally.

Best of luck.  Remember, it is just the financial markets.  The sun still shines, plants still grow wonderful food, people that want to work will still work, and nature has provided all the beauty (other humans, waterfalls, birds, plants, grass, planets, stars) we could ever need. 

The falling apart of the financial market economy might cause people to rediscover relationships, conversation, good food, and enjoying nature.

"Don't go around saying the world owes you a living. The world owes you nothing. It was here first."
Mark Twain

Wednesday, November 16, 2011

16 Nov 2011

Right click and click view image to get a bigger view.  Sometimes the click doesn't work.

Beware - lots of charts saying similar things - I don't know why I keep making them all when they essentially show the same thing, but whatever.  Holy Grail Syndrome, I'll call it.

 As you probably know, I love this indicator as the timing devices I put on it.  Top:  Pretty much near historical highs.  All of which came on the back of unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus.  Check out the bottom RSI.  Can't really get much higher huh? Middle: TSV could get higher, but notice it is hitting its second std, something that rarely happens as you can see.
 % Stocks above 40 day moving average.  Can't get much higher, huh?

 This is percent of stocks above 200 day moving average.  Remarkable weakness when compared to the rally of the fall last year. 
 This one shows the charade of the Nasdaq composite.  Check out the Nasdaq 100 advance decline line (green) compared to the total Nasdaq composite advance decline line.  Note that the total Nasdaq throws out most other stocks which is why its price is more similar to the Nasdaq 100.  So the question is, when, not if, will the Nasdaq 100 stocks (GOOG, AAPL, PCLN, AMZN) start joining the bear market?  It always happens.

Speaking of, check out GOOG.  It messed around with my upper resistance more than I thought it would.  Check out the middle and bottom of this chart.  Will it break the lower resistance?  I am quite confident, in time, it will.  Sorry Google.  Thanks for hosting this blog.
 This would make me waiver more in that it could try to re-rally soon for its recent highs despite the already ridiculously overbought status of the McClellan Summation index.  Therefore, still overbought.
 Becoming oversold at 65%.   However, impressive building of higher lows on the hold short index.
 I think probably every blog has this up.  Note the target on the left side of the screen - 117.  SOMETIMES the price can bottom and try to regain the channel by going up and tagging it.  That COULD happen, but like I said, I don't see how it could last long considering the Summation Index.
 Medium and longer term custom oscillators.  Don't really show much other than that we have had lower peaks and lower lows.
 This is redundant of the short and medium term charts except that the bottom shows the TSV and Moneystream for the Dow.  It is clear that we are at high levels for TSV and Moneystream did not participate in the rally of last year as the Dow made new highs and this didn't.
 This is the Holy Grail Indicator I created.  It sums the percentage of stocks with a moving average over another moving average for pretty much every time frame from 1 day to 377 days.  This SHOULD help us find significant bottoms and great buying opportunities on the divergences between lows and price.
I know there are a lot of silver fans that read this blog because I was a huge bull up until it started hitting its 3rd standard deviation around 45.  Note that when it lost my lower trendline, we have a target of 23, which coincidentally is the 61.8% fibonacci retracement from the bottom in 2009 to the high in 2011.  Also, if you draw a trendline from the low in 2009 and connect all the other lows in 2010 along that line, it appears to meet the price around 23.  This is also very near the highs from the 2008 market which SHOULD serve as support for that reason. This is also near the 500 day simple moving average which should be support. Currently the stochastics are overbought and it met pretty good resistance at the moving averages and the 38.2% fib retracement after stopping near the 50% fib.

Silver at 23 would be a gift.  You can sure bet the money guns will come blazing then.  I'm actually terrified of that.

You're welcome.

"The ideas of economists and political philosophers, both when they are right and when they are wrong, are more powerful than is commonly understood. Indeed, the world is ruled by little else. Practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influences, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist. Madmen in authority, who hear voices in the air, are distilling their frenzy from some academic scribbler of a few years back... soon or late, it is ideas, not vested interests, which are dangerous for good or evil."
-- John Maynard Keynes, "The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money"

"... the benefits of a depreciating currency are not restricted to the government. Farmers and debtors and all persons liable to pay fixed money dues share in the advantage. As now in the persons of business men, so also in former ages these classes constituted the active and constructive elements in the economic scheme… The tendency of money to depreciate has been in past times a weighty counterpoise against the cumulative results of compound interest and the inheritance of fortunes. … By this means each generation can disinherit in part its predecessors’ heirs; and the project of founding a perpetual fortune must be disappointed in this way, unless the community with conscious deliberation provides against it in some other way, more equitable and more expedient."
-- John Maynard Keynes - Essays In Persuasion

"By a continuing process of inflation, governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens. By this method, they not only confiscate, but they confiscate arbitrarily; and, while the process impoverishes many, it actually enriches some. The sight of this arbitrary rearrangement of riches strikes not only at security, but at confidence in the equity of the existing distribution of wealth. Those to whom the system brings windfalls . . . become 'profiteers', who are the object of the hatred of the bourgeoisie, whom the inflationism has impoverished not less than the proletariat. As the inflation proceeds . . . all permanent relations between debtors and creditors, which form the ultimate foundation of capitalism, become so utterly disordered as to be almost meaningless."
-- John Maynard Keynes, "The Economic Consequences of the Peace", pages 220-223 (1919).

"There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency. The process engages all the hidden forces of economic law on the side of destruction, and does it in a manner which not one man in a million can diagnose."
-- John Maynard Keynes, "Economic consequences of the peace"- Unseen Hand, page 57

It is going to happen because it must.

Tuesday, November 15, 2011

Monday, November 14, 2011

14 Nov 2011

 Neither oversold or overbought in the short term.  Closer to oversold though.  Could provide room for one last push upwards.
Ready for one last push?

Everyone has been talking about the triangle forming.  Considering the massive tail-wind in the market as judged by the McClellan Summation Index, I could see us breaking up out of it only to fail soon after.  I guess no one knows.

Sunday, November 13, 2011

13 Nov 2011 (USAGX vs Silver vs. Gold vs Nasdaq vs Gold 70s vs Silver 70s

 USAGX vs. Silver vs. Gold vs. Nasdaq Bull Markets
These are different time frames than I usually post.  The middle one shows quite the divergence from index prices.

Friday, November 11, 2011

11 Nov 2011

 Could be considered oversold as of last night.  Looks like the gap today will take care of that.
 Doesn't look good.
Truly historic move for the summation index.

Wednesday, November 9, 2011

9 Nov 2011

Not quite oversold in my usually monitored short term indicator.  Looks like we are getting oversold in the very short term one I have above.  Most of the rest still look overbought.

Tuesday, November 8, 2011

8 Nov 2011

 Still like the old ones.  Medium term not at new highs.  Dow has about 60 points to go to close its gap from 10/28.
 Short term still not at new highs despite indexes being very close.
Composite indicator still showing a solid downtrend despite this rally.  We will see if that was a long term bottom or not.

Monday, November 7, 2011

7 Nov 2011

 Short, medium, and long term indicators that I usually report.  Only difference is it is now 3 and 8.
New highs and new lows as a percentage of the market. 

Sunday, November 6, 2011

6 Nov 2011

 Confusion in the short term.
 Does the medium term want to retry for the highs?
Put this custom indicator together which sums the amount of stocks with a number of time frames (1 day to 377 day) moving indicators above one another (e.g. 8 over 21, 1 over 3, 89 over 233, etc.).  Numbers were just Fibonacci sequence.  No reason why.  I normalized the sum so that it is between 0 and 100.  I thought the results were interesting.  A lot of the great traders say things need to be cheap in all time frames to buy, and dear in all time frames to sell.  That was my intent with this.  I am considering creating weighted to the long term and short term variants of this.  I am guessing they will end up looking like the others I already create though.

Wednesday, November 2, 2011

2 Nov 2011

 I like to watch the leading stocks.  JAZZ tried to bounce off key support, and failed despite a big up day for the indexes.  It has not yet broken support though.  We'll watch.
 GOOG still wrestling with the upper bound I drew last week and pointed out here.
Decrease in HL today.

Slight increase in HL today.