Thursday, October 31, 2013

31 Oct 2013

 Buying climaxes rise again.
 Medium term headed down.  Remains overbought.
Short term is quickly heading into negative territory.  Not yet oversold.

Wednesday, October 30, 2013

30 Oct 2013

 Long term overbought.
 Medium term turned down today.  Remains overbought.
Short term is below 50%.  Fast change from yesterday.

Tuesday, October 29, 2013

29 Oct 2013

 Long term is overbought.  Shocker.
 Medium term is overbought.  Bounced slightly today.
Short term bounced slightly today.

"Enjoy present pleasures in such a way as not to injure future ones."
Seneca (5 B.C. - 65 A.D.)

Monday, October 28, 2013

28 Oct 2013

Overbought in all time frames.

Sunday, October 27, 2013

27 Oct 2013

 Buying climaxes are on the rise again.
 Long term is heading back up.  Remains very overbought.
 Medium term is overbought.
Short term has been declining and is no longer overbought.

"He that would make his own liberty secure, must guard even his enemy from oppression; for if he violates this duty he establishes a precedent that will reach himself." 
Thomas Paine 

Thursday, October 24, 2013

Wednesday, October 23, 2013

23 Oct 2013

 Medium term remains overbought.  Slight flattening today. Lagging a peak from February.
Short term declined today.

"Of all tyrannies, a tyranny exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive. It may be better to live under robber barons than under omnipotent moral busybodies. The robber baron's cruelty may sometimes sleep, his cupidity may at some point be satiated; but those who torment us for our own good will torment us without end, for they do so with the approval of their own conscience."
C. S. Lewis

Tuesday, October 22, 2013

22 Oct 2013

 Medium term working its way into very overbought territory.
Short term bounced slightly today from its decline.

On one hand this feels like this market can go up indefinitely.  On the other hand, I don't see how my long term indicator can continue to stay pegged to its upper bound.  Have the rules really changed as the tsunami of funny money from Quantitative Easing endlessly searches for returns?  What happens when people want to claim their winnings?

Monday, October 21, 2013

21 Oct 2013

 Just another view.  Extremely elevated levels.
 Long term remains overbought.
 Medium term is slowing some.  Remains overbought.
Short term at historically overbought levels.

Friday, October 18, 2013

18 Oct 2013

 Medium term is nearing overbought levels.
Short term is overbought as of last night and is currently declining for today.

"And that", put in the Director sententiously, "that is the secret of happiness and virtue — liking what you’ve got to do. All conditioning aims at that: making people like their un-escapable social destiny."
Aldous Huxley

Turn off the TV and tell your "social destiny" to fuck off.  You can be anything you want, including yourself.

Wednesday, October 16, 2013

16 Oct 2013

 Long term remains overbought.
 Medium term isn't overbought, but is lagging previous peaks.  I presume it will make a new high based on the performance of the ST indicator below.
Short term is very overbought.  One of the highest readings the past three years.

The US Government cannot continue to operate without taking on more debt.  This is the problem with a debt based monetary system.  It's unsustainable and always requires more money (debt) to service existing debt. Celebrate.  BTFATH.

Tuesday, October 15, 2013

15 Oct 2013

 Medium term still lagging previous highs.
Short term went up today - I'm guessing from the early day strength.  Since its above 70%, I consider it overbought.  We'll have to monitor if it remains lower than the previous peak.

"Governments lie; bankers lie; even auditors sometimes lie: gold tells the truth."
Lord Rees Mogg, economist & former editor of The Times

Monday, October 14, 2013

14 Oct 2013

 Shortest term is overbought.
 Long term still showing a narrowing of breadth the last few months.
 Medium term is bouncing hard.  Is it sustainable?
Short term rolled to the side today.  Lagging previous peaks.  Not quite overbought.

"If the governments devalue the currency in order to betray all creditors, you politely call this procedure 'inflation'."
George Bernard Shaw

Sunday, October 13, 2013

13 Oct 2013

 Long term overbought.
 Medium term neutral.
 Short term becoming overbought.

Shortest term (top) already overbought.  Composite indicator actually at a spot that has found support during the rallies since 2009.

"Bankruptcies of governments have, on the whole, done less harm to mankind than their ability to raise loans."
R. H. Tawney, Religion and the Rise of Capitalism, 1926

Thursday, October 10, 2013

10 Oct 2013

 Long term remains at extremely high levels.
 Medium term is not oversold.
Short term is bouncing from the oversold levels I pointed out the last two days.

If I were still in touch with the market, I'd guess this short term rally will fail due to the still high medium term levels and the persistent weakness showing up in the long term indicator for the past few months.

"The liberties of people never were, or never will be secure, when the transactions of their rulers may be concealed from them."
Patrick Henry

Tuesday, October 8, 2013

8 Oct 2013

 Short term is oversold.
Medium term remains neutral.

Short term treasury yields are rapidly rising.  I suspect a lot of damage will be done even if this is "resolved" before the 17th.

Monday, October 7, 2013

7 Oct 2013

 Long term has been slowly diverging from the Dow for three months.
 Medium term is declining, but still has substantial room to fall.
Short term still is not oversold despite the sell-off today.

It's a little late news, but I find it interesting that Obama is saying that Wall Street will feel this shutdown.  I recall in mid 2009, he said stocks were a good buy.  I wonder if he is right again.

Sunday, October 6, 2013

6 Oct 2013

Short term has been bouncing from oversold levels.  All other time frames remain elevated, especially long term.