Wednesday, August 28, 2013

28 Aug 2013

 Short term can bounce from here.  Medium term becoming oversold.  Long term still overbought.
I thought this view was interesting showing the (slightly) declining breadth the last nine months.

"There is nothing which I dread so much as a division of the republic into two great parties, each arranged under its leader, and concerting measures in opposition to each other. This, in my humble apprehension, is to be dreaded as the greatest political evil under our Constitution."
-- John Adams Source

Tuesday, August 27, 2013

27 Aug 2013

Shortest term is oversold.
Short term is above previous low, but not oversold.
Long term is extremely overbought.
Composite is neutral.

A rip your face off rally could occur to squeeze out short term shorts if my short term indicators build from here.  Obviously, I'm still negative for the longer term.

Monday, August 26, 2013

26 Aug 2013

Shortest term nearing overbought.
Short term neutral.
Medium term neutral.
Long term overbought.
Composite neutral.

"A man may die, nations may rise and fall, but an idea lives on."
John Fitzgerald Kennedy

Sunday, August 25, 2013

25 August 2013

Short term has started to bounce from oversold conditions.  Other time frames still have some room to fall. 
McClellan made a lower low on this sell off than the previous low.  This generally represents weakness.  The RSI is still pretty low, but is not oversold.

Sunday, August 18, 2013

18 Aug 2013

Short term oversold.
Medium term neutral.
Long term overbought.

We're looking for a lower low on the composite indicator.

I'm not sure how much I will be able to post this week.

"Neither paper currency nor deposits have value as commodities, intrinsically, a 'dollar' bill is just a piece of paper. Deposits are merely book entries."
Modern Money Mechanics Workbook, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, 1975

Friday, August 16, 2013

16 Aug 2013

Short term has become mostly oversold.  Dow has broken through its trendline.  It's reasonable to expect a bounce back to it.  I'm not saying to trade it - just to be patient.

Wednesday, August 14, 2013

14 Aug 2013

Short term has basically done nothing the last few days.
 Medium term has descended.  
I noticed how much this longer term indicator diverged from the Dow during 2006 and 2007.  There is a very slight divergence currently forming.  All small pieces eventually make up a whole.  I do not know if it is a cause for alarm, but buying here is not like buying in 2008.  By the way, check out how this signaled strength in 2009 despite the Dow plunging.

Tuesday, August 13, 2013

13 Aug 2013

For those of you who wanted more scientific references in my "Eat as Much as Possible," the link below provides very comprehensive analysis of thyroid and metabolism importance for lowering cholesterol and beating heart disease.  

I suspect this is part of the reason fructose (fruit sugar) reduces serum cholesterol - it doesn't interfere with metabolism (thyroid hormone), and provides fuel for the liver to combine cholesterol with thyroid hormone (T3) and pre-formed vitamin A (retinol) to form sex hormones. 

I recommend getting labs done prior to beginning experimentation.  Before you argue for your limitations from a genetic standpoint, remember one other characteristic of families - they live together and pass on habits.

Short term is neutral.  Medium term still overbought.  Long term still very overbought.  Composite index is still overbought.

Argue for your limitations, and sure enough they're yours.
Richard Bach 

Monday, August 12, 2013

12 Aug 2013

Silver is bouncing off the bottom of its channel. Recall a while back I said this old resistance point (from 2009 and 2010) should serve as support.  I don't think the bull market in silver or gold are completely over, but I don't know if what I think matters.  The formatting on this site is awful.

 Medium term bounced slightly today.
Short term bounced slightly today.

Still serious weakness in the summation index.  I still think my indicators (as I've identified most bottoms the past three years and far more tops than actually occurred) are valuable for someone who has the time to actively trade and has lots of willpower.

I'd be lying if I said I still traded a lot like I did in 2011.  My energy has been devoted to my new job and exploring nutrition and health.  Good health seems incompatible with active trading stress.  Maybe one day I will return.

The Fed's balance sheet continues to grow.  Monetary base growth continues to outpace inflation, and the yield curve remains normal.

There was some interesting news on Zerohedge today:  that taper odds are higher, that the Fed is finally admitting QE may not impact real economic growth, and that they are blaming a possible crash on leveraged ETFs.

"In the next 50 years [i.e., by 2021], fine dust that humans discharge into the atmosphere by burning fossil fuel will screen out so much of the sun's rays that the Earth's average temperature could fall by six degrees. Sustained emissions over five to 10 years [i.e., 1976-81], could be sufficient to trigger an ice age."
Washington Post, July 9, 1971

Sunday, August 11, 2013

11 Aug 2013 (Gold vs Nasdaq Update)

A continuation of my health information:
"Alright, so I’ve lost 150 pounds of fat eating a high-sugar diet, mostly coming from the sugar in sweet fruit." .

 Short term is headed to oversold conditions.  Medium term and long term remain elevated.
 Silver, USAGX and gold have puled back to the Nasdaq's performance.
Buying climaxes are starting to get elevated again.

"There is nothing so disastrous as a rational investment policy in an irrational world."
John Maynard Keynes

Thursday, August 8, 2013

8 Aug 2013

I've been gone a few weeks.  Here are the latest charts.  
 McClellan Summation index has rolled over and has a negative divergence with the previous peak.  This is negative until it finds support.
My shorter term indicators have already broke down.  My longest term remains very overbought.

"Impossible is a word to be found only in the dictionary of fools."
Napoleon Bonaparte