Wednesday, April 30, 2014

30 Apr 2014

 Medium term neutral.
Short term slightly oversold.

Tapering is tightening.

Tuesday, April 29, 2014

29 Apr 2014

 The 200 day moving average of the McClellan summation index first crossed below zero in early 2008.  It then re-crossed in mid 2009.  I'll be keeping an eye on this as it gets closer to the 0 with fairly persistent, relative to earlier years in the bull, weakness in the index itself.
 Medium term is neutral.
Short term is partially oversold.  Slight bounce today.

Thursday, April 24, 2014

24 Apr 2014

 Long term is as high as it's ever been.  Amazing.
 Medium term is rallying (lagging the short term indicator)
Short term fell slightly today.  Remains in overbought territory.

Ever since the Russia / Ukraine crisis began, I became worried.  It just didn't seem like it was going to be resolved quickly.  It disappeared from the news as the news highlighted the missing airliner for weeks. Meanwhile, it continued to bubble under the surface.  It seems like it is about to explode and be apparent to everyone.

The US' hegemony on the use of force in the world is on the decline.  China and Russia want their place in the spotlight.  The US is currently being tested on "red line" after "red line," and it is becoming apparent that we no longer are the biggest dog in the fight or simply, have too much to lose.  The economic woes continue to plague the country in spite of what the news tells you (and the stock market reflects).  War has always been convenient in times like this.

Student credit has gone asymptotic the past five years.  The monetary base has been exploding.  All this fuel and still not much of a fire in the engine of the US economy.

The US finds itself in a difficult situation.  We declare war, Russia and China can dump treasuries or abandon the dollar for settling petro sales.  We declare war, extreme inflation to cover costs.  Dollar loses value anyways.  All negatives for a precarious economy.  Traditionally government bonds would be a safe haven from these events, but I'm not sure that would still be the case.

We don't declare war, it becomes obvious that we are just a small dog with a loud bark that only picks on extremely poor nations.  A truly confident nation wouldn't need to be paranoid about national security.

It seems the only assets (art, collectibles, precious metals, defendable/ariable land) that don't have counterparty risks are the safest - they will not "blow up" as other paper instruments could, but they could continue to decline in value for the mean time.

Wednesday, April 23, 2014

23 Apr 2014

 Medium term bounced a bit today.  Neutral territory.
Short term overbought.

Tuesday, April 22, 2014

22 Apr 2014

 Medium term is neutral.  Unfortunately I do not have the actual readings the last two weeks.
Short term is back at overbought levels.

Sunday, April 6, 2014

6 Apr 2014

 Still extremely overbought in the long term.  Will there ever be a mean reversion?
 Medium term neutral.  Declined on Thurs and Fri of last week.
 Short term heading back to neutral from overbought levels.
Silver is developing an interesting triangle.  Will it break out and up?  Time will tell.  The yellow line represents long term resistance from 2008.

I will be unable to post until 17 April.  Best of luck.

Wednesday, April 2, 2014

2 Apr 2014

 Medium term nearing 60%.
Short term overbought at 75%.

Tuesday, April 1, 2014

1 Apr 2014

 Short term (below) nearing overbought levels already.
McClellan summation index is lagging the new high on the S&P-500.  Granted, if it turns upwards here, it does give a little room for the mainstream indexes to rise a little higher.  But either way, it is quite depressed compared to previous recent highs since 2009 to be aligned with a fresh all time high on the S&P.