Monday, October 25, 2010

Short-Term Chart Updates

Against all odds, it looks like this thing wants to start climbing again.  It is still below recent highs, but not by much.  The TSV has a negative divergence (middle area), but this can exist for some time like in April.  Note that it currently has a negative divergence from the highs in early May despite some of the indexes (Nasdaq 100, DIA) beating it.  I assume this could also be closed if we continue to get more gaps (yellow lines and one more from today) than the Tube.

 Check out the insane height on that moving average.  I forgot the US stock market was made-up entirely of companies that found the cure for cancer.  I wouldn't say this has been defeated yet.  It can certainly levitate if it wants to.
 The new highs are sad to watch.  The indexes (especially Nasdaq 100) have mostly tagged or beat their April highs, but new (260 trading day = 1 calendar year) highs are barely half of what they were in April.  I assume this divergence can be undone if everything keeps getting ramped, but it has not yet.
 Usually I don't share this one or really use it.  This is basically stocks that have prices going one way (using the short-term indicators I use below) while indicators I use (TSV, MS, MACD, BOP) are 100% the opposite way.  It has been climbing, but usually is better at finding dead-cat bounces much like the Europe bailout spike seen on the chart.  It is interesting that it is seemingly climbing while we are making new highs on the indexes.
This moving average is as high as it was during the April run-up.  The blue-line has managed to stay stronger than the Viagra four-hour erection.  As if that is a bad thing!

 The Nasdaq 100 may be strong with AAPL, GOOG, AMZN, PCLN, NFLX, but the judging from the Nasdaq advance/decline line, it has less leadership than the G7.
 It is pretty much do or die time for the dollar.  If it craps its pants and breaks through this support and the one lower, it might get to the point where it going down is not good for stocks (long-term, it is not because commodity prices - production inputs go up more), but who knows in this perverse universe.

TXN (Texas Instruments) beat estimates and then lowered guidance through the end of the year and was down after hours.  However, its going to take a bigger news story than this.  According to the Bradley Siderograph, today was a turning point.  I'm not going to bet on it, yet. 

Update:  Oh, yeah.  VIX was positive today.  Huh?

Wall Street people learn nothing and forget everything.
Benjamin Graham

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