Wednesday, July 27, 2011

27 July 2011 (United States Power Consumption; Shiller Data Updates)

I went to work and updated some of the favorites:

 This is updated through 2011, but the data only exists for the first three months.  I extrapolated the total by calculating and using the percentage that they made up of the total power usage in 2010.  Seems head and shoulder-ish.
 It looks like we are in the lately annual "middle" spike for March.

This is the chart the comes with the Case Shiller Data.  The three peak pattern seems consistent with previous times.
Notice that the real yield is still less than interest rates in the chart above.  Also notice how historically low the div yield is.
 The McSum looks terrible as I pointed out yesterday.  TSV has a ways to go downward if it wants to and each peak has been progressively lower for almost a year and a half.  Yes, this is the reason I was bearish in February, March, April, May, (not June, I said to buy around 15 June), and now for the medium term.
VIX zoomed in, broke the 500 day, broke my resistance line, sitting on upper bollinger band (usually bullish for markets in the short-term, but I have a feeling it will only be a few days of "relief" once the debt deal passes.

Long term VIX shows the resistance of the 500 day EMA for the past three years.
 This is newly tracked.  50 EMA over 200 EMA constitutes hold long in the long term.  Still amazingly high.
 Medium term in negative territory now.
 Short term oversold.  This could be the relief bounce for a few days.
 Buying climaxes getting high again.

 The pathetic breadth of the market is exhibited by the above chart.

 I'm working on the monetary base / CPI data for my own information.  The chart works well too, but hides inflection points.

"The ultimate result of shielding men from the effects of folly is to fill the world with fools."
Herbert Spencer

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