Monday, March 7, 2011

7 March 2011

Rate of change negative again...despite QE2.  Can't force a horse to drink or force people to borrow.
Real Interest Rates still heading towards zero.  Bearish for gold/silver, but it is still negative, which overall is positive for the metals.
GDX struggling to make new highs while gold/silver both do.  Still about 10% within high from 2008.  That SHOULD serve as support.
FCX, one of the leaders, doesn't look great.  If it breaks the 09 - Present trendline, this could be merely a massive dead-cat bounce infused by unprecedented liquidity.
Dollar at a critical juncture.  At two supports and barely has to move upwards to beat overhead resistance line (yellow).
Ford (F) broke long-term support line today.  However, knowing bull markets, there is no reason this won't make another thrust at the high.  Trends die slowly - not just with one try the other direction.

Weekly advance-decline at support line and very near upper Bollinger Band.
Mclellan trending downward again.  The non-confirm of this high and the last high shows weakness.  However, this thing has managed to turn around any time weakness has shown up the last few months.  Taken as a pure chart perspective, this is weak.  The circles show the amount of time its spent overbought recently.  Notice the "flat-line" getting shorter and then into nothing.
Hold Long Short-term at 45%
Hold Long Medium-term at 57%   

Copper at support trendline.  Note the bearish Moneystream in the middle.  

I've pretty much decided to quit trying to guess where silver stops.  Its fundamentals (extreme supply shortage, with increasing demand, still low real and nominal price) that I highlighted for a long-time on this blog have overcome technicals for the meantime.  I hope that you are along for the ride like I am, but I'm still not buying here - I don't chase hot markets, ever.

"An imbalance between rich and poor is the oldest and most fatal ailment of all republics."
-- Plutarch

"Panics do not destroy capital; they merely reveal the extent to which it has been previously destroyed by its betrayal into hopelessly unproductive works".
-- John Stuart Mill

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