Monday, October 24, 2011

24 Oct 2011

 TSV is floored to the roof for the shortest term oscillation.  There are only a few times where it stayed up there substantially long.  See the white box in 2009.
 This closed at a value of 317.  There have been only three higher closes since 1986.  On 7/26/10, it closed at 336.  On 1/6/09, it closed at 345.  On 1/2/09, it closed at 324.  The white line just lags the candles by about three days.
 Close to overbought again - only about 7% from all time highs.
This is quickly reaching overbought levels.  Will we go just to a bit over 70% like we have since last summer or will we push up to 80%?  Who knows.  NYSI still overbought.

I will admit that I am not the best at following my own rules or charts.  For instance, I pounded the table that the medium term and short term were oversold for pretty much all of early August, and that we should not be initiating new shorts.  I bought some stuff, dumped too early.  Then the indicators gave me a negative divergence (hold short medium term peak reached a lower peak - Oct- than previous - Aug - while the Dow made a new low) in early October.  A perfect fat pitch in combination with the McClellan Summation index making a higher low which is something I always watch for.  Disobeying facts in order to follow emotions and thoughts seems maybe more fun, but it is not profitable.  I guess I did cover 80% of my shorts on the exact day of the low, but it was pennies for profits.  And I didn't buy then.  Anyways, just wanted to get that out there.  I'm sure others feel this way.  Whatever you do, don't ever panic buy or sell because of the crowd.  I have learned that.  Good luck.

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