Long term remains overbought.
Medium term rose slightly today. Lagging previous peaks. Divergent with the Dow's action.
Short term slightly declined today. Remains slightly overbought.
"Hyman Minsky developed an economics of financial instability, of instability bred by stability itself…Minsky’s approach, very different from Godley’s, is conceptual rather than statistical. A key virtue is that it puts finance at the center of economic analysis, analytically inseparable from what is sometimes called real economic activity, for the simple reason that capitalistic economies are run by banks. And, of course, his second great insight is into the dynamics of phase transitions: the famous movement from the hedge position to the speculative position to the intrinsically unsustainable, doomed to collapse ponzi position which arises from within the system and is subject actually to formalization in the endogenous instabilities of non-linear dynamical models.
To grasp what Minsky is about, it seems to me, is to go immediately beyond the coarse notion of the “Minsky moment,” a concept which implies falsely that there are also non-Minsky moments. It is to recognize that the financial system is both necessary and dangerous, that strict financial regulation is both indispensable and imperfect."
-- James Galbraith, 5th annual Dijon conference on Post Keynesian economics, Copenhagen, May 2011
Monday, December 30, 2013
Sunday, December 29, 2013
29 Dec 2013
McClellan Summation remains in uptrend since Mid December. RSI working off oversold conditions.
Medium term lagging previous peaks heavily.
Short term remains overbought.
Saturday, December 21, 2013
20 Dec 2013
Long term overbought.
Medium term neutral.
Short term overbought.
Sorry again for the loss of data - the most recent readings are accurate as of the close today. I am probably going to get a new computer or reinstall the OS to fix this.
Medium term neutral.
Short term overbought.
Sorry again for the loss of data - the most recent readings are accurate as of the close today. I am probably going to get a new computer or reinstall the OS to fix this.
Wednesday, December 18, 2013
18 Dec 2013
Today's action was as expected due to seasonal tendencies and the subdued nature of my medium term indicator and the McClellan summation index. We are not overbought in the short term.
We remain overbought in the long term.
My computer crashed again and Excel failed to autosave my data. If you guys wanna buy me a new computer, I'd appreciate it.
We remain overbought in the long term.
My computer crashed again and Excel failed to autosave my data. If you guys wanna buy me a new computer, I'd appreciate it.
Tuesday, December 17, 2013
Monday, December 16, 2013
16 Dec 2013
Gold rests on a long term trendline.
I finally have this going back longer. Now you can see my long term indicator's behavior at the previous two peaks. It looks like it can stay high for a long time and even show weakness when the Dow climbs.
McClellan summation index shows divergences with the Dow. Currently, we've been getting weaker except for the peak in 2012.
Medium term indicator slightly oversold.
Short term indicators neither oversold nor overbought.
I finally have this going back longer. Now you can see my long term indicator's behavior at the previous two peaks. It looks like it can stay high for a long time and even show weakness when the Dow climbs.
McClellan summation index shows divergences with the Dow. Currently, we've been getting weaker except for the peak in 2012.
Medium term indicator slightly oversold.
Short term indicators neither oversold nor overbought.
Sunday, December 15, 2013
15 Dec 2013
Long term overbought
Short term bounced some on Friday. Remains oversold.
Medium term is starting to get oversold. Note the trend change of higher lows since December of 2012 has been somewhat broken. We'll see if we challenge the lows from earlier this year.
Silver seems to be finding support at its long time resistance level from 2010 and prior. I'm waiting to see if it break through its descending resistance trendline.
Short term bounced some on Friday. Remains oversold.
Medium term is starting to get oversold. Note the trend change of higher lows since December of 2012 has been somewhat broken. We'll see if we challenge the lows from earlier this year.
Silver seems to be finding support at its long time resistance level from 2010 and prior. I'm waiting to see if it break through its descending resistance trendline.
Thursday, December 12, 2013
12 Dec 2013
Long term remains very overbought and lagging previous values.
Medium term not yet oversold. Declining quickly.
Short term broke previous low. This is normally not a good sign. However, we're nearly oversold.
As a predominantly bearish blog, I've begun to wonder if my readership falling off is a contrarian signal. This fall off despite me identifying EVERY good buying point the last three years with my medium term indicator.
Medium term not yet oversold. Declining quickly.
Short term broke previous low. This is normally not a good sign. However, we're nearly oversold.
As a predominantly bearish blog, I've begun to wonder if my readership falling off is a contrarian signal. This fall off despite me identifying EVERY good buying point the last three years with my medium term indicator.
Wednesday, December 11, 2013
11 Dec 2013
Long term remains overbought.
Medium term broke down today.
Short term as well. We'll see if it can build off it's previous low or go lower.
Gold and silver seem to have found support at the same place again. Once they break their downtrend lines, I will recommend them as buys again.
Medium term broke down today.
Short term as well. We'll see if it can build off it's previous low or go lower.
Gold and silver seem to have found support at the same place again. Once they break their downtrend lines, I will recommend them as buys again.
Tuesday, December 10, 2013
10 Dec 2013
Medium term slightly declined today. Neutral.
Short term rallied today and is neutral.
These somewhat subdued values may give room for the typical Christmas through New Years rally for short term traders.
Short term rallied today and is neutral.
These somewhat subdued values may give room for the typical Christmas through New Years rally for short term traders.
Monday, December 9, 2013
9 Dec 2013
Long term remains elevated.
Medium term lagging the Dow price.
Short term bouncing from oversold levels. Lagging previous peaks.
Medium term lagging the Dow price.
Short term bouncing from oversold levels. Lagging previous peaks.
Sunday, December 8, 2013
Thursday, December 5, 2013
5 Dec 2013
Short term isn't extremely oversold yet. Initiating new short sales here is becoming more risky.
Wednesday, December 4, 2013
4 Dec 2013
Buying climaxes nearing all time highs.
Long term remains insanely overbought. Really hasn't even been neutral since Summer 2012.
Medium term is neutral.
Short term is nearing oversold levels.
Long term remains insanely overbought. Really hasn't even been neutral since Summer 2012.
Medium term is neutral.
Short term is nearing oversold levels.
Tuesday, December 3, 2013
3 Dec 2013
Buying climaxes rising again.
Medium term neutral.
Short term nearly oversold.
Sorry for the ridiculous step function plots. I lost a lot of data and just used the last value I had as a constant for half the values and the most recent number for the other half of the values. The numbers for today are accurate.
Medium term neutral.
Short term nearly oversold.
Sorry for the ridiculous step function plots. I lost a lot of data and just used the last value I had as a constant for half the values and the most recent number for the other half of the values. The numbers for today are accurate.
Monday, December 2, 2013
Sunday, December 1, 2013
Monday, November 25, 2013
25 Nov 2013
Short term heading up.
Medium term seems to be trending down.
Long term overbought.
Sorry for no Excel charts. Somehow lost a lot of data.
Medium term seems to be trending down.
Long term overbought.
Sorry for no Excel charts. Somehow lost a lot of data.
Sunday, November 24, 2013
24 Nov 2013
Short term is neutral. Medium term is high. Long term is high. Composite indicator is pegged at highs.
Friday, November 22, 2013
21 Nov 2013
USAGX, Gold, Silver, and Crude (not quite) have all pulled back to line up nearly with the Nasdaq bubble.
Oh, look. On a long term basis, stocks are extremely overbought.
Medium term lagging previous highs. Not sure what the Dow is doing.
Short term slightly declined today. Not mimicking action of the Dow.
Oh, look. On a long term basis, stocks are extremely overbought.
Medium term lagging previous highs. Not sure what the Dow is doing.
Short term slightly declined today. Not mimicking action of the Dow.
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