30 April 2013

29 April 2013

 The relentless rise in the long term indicator is pushing the upper limits.  We'll see if this trend will finally change.

 Medium term bounce continues.  Not overbought or oversold.

Short term declined again today despite the strong day in the Dow.

"Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one".
-- Albert Einstein

28 Apr 2013

Short term descended a bit on Friday.  Remains overbought.

 Medium term remains in a downtrend, but has shown strength recently.

The McClellan summation index (almost looks like my medium term indicator) is in an uptrend the last five or so days.  The RSI shows it is still not cheap.  

"If falsehood like truth had only one face, we would be in better shape. For we would take as certain the opposite of what the liar said. But the reverse of truth has a hundred thousand shapes and a limitless field."
Michel de Montaigne

24 April 2013

 Medium term still bouncing some.

Short term increased to 74% today.

"One final paragraph of advice: do not burn yourselves out. Be as I am – a reluctant enthusiast….a part-time crusader, a half-hearted fanatic. Save the other half of yourselves and your lives for pleasure and adventure. It is not enough to fight for the land; it is even more important to enjoy it. While you can. While it’s still here. So get out there and hunt and fish and mess around with your friends, ramble out yonder and explore the forests, climb the mountains, bag the peaks, run the rivers, breathe deep of that yet sweet and lucid air, sit quietly for a while and contemplate the precious stillness, the lovely, mysterious, and awesome space. Enjoy yourselves, keep your brain in your head and your head firmly attached to the body, the body active and alive, and I promise you this much; I promise you this one sweet victory over our enemies, over those desk-bound men and women with their hearts in a safe deposit box, and their eyes hypnotized by desk calculators. I promise you this; You will outlive the bastards."
Edward Abbey

23 April 2013

 Contrarian Hold Long on the rise again.  Sometimes this marks bottoms.  Sometimes dead cat bounces.

 Hold long long term still very elevated.

 Medium term bouncing a little.  Still slightly oversold.  Severely lagging the indexes.

Short term back near overbought territory.

"If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, go home from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or your arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains set lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that ye were our countrymen." 
Samuel Adams

22 April 2013

17 April 2013

 Medium term broke down.

Short term remains oversold.

This is not looking good.  The Dow still is in its channel and should find support if / when it reaches the bottom of it.

16 April 2013

 A slight slowing in the medium term decline.  Current reading is neutral.  Though, if the breadth started to go upwards again, it will provide a tailwind for the indexes.

Short term declined slightly today.  Remains mostly oversold.

"The suspicions that the system is rigged in favor of the largest banks and their elites, so they play by their own set of rules to the disfavor of the taxpayers who funded their bailout, are true.
It really happened. These suspicions are valid."
-- Neil Barofsky, TARP Inspector General, 2012

15 April 2013

 Short term had a violent reversal today.  Almost looks as hard as any other one in this plot.

The same applies for the medium term.

Seasonality is starting to look worse for stocks as well.  I'm tempted to call a top, but we normally get a double top first.

"You get recessions, you have stock market declines. If you don't understand that's going to happen, then you're not ready, you won't do well in the markets."
-- Peter Lynch

13 April 2013

 Shortest term is overbought.  The medium terms are still lagging previous highs.

According to my composite index (second from bottom pane) extremely high levels, if you are trying to be a contrarian investor, there have been very few times that it's a worse time to be a buyer.

Plus, considering what happened in Cyprus, I'd wager that most people will be lucky to ever see their digital fiat materialize in their possession.

From Jim Willie:

"THE 2005 BANKRUPTCY LAW

The law has come front and center into view. Its features, reinforced by the Financial Regulatory Bill (aka Dodd-Frank Law) have never been more important than now. The individual side to the reformed bankruptcy provisions received the most attention, including for the Jackass. It removed the Chapter 7 wipeout of debts in offset by assets, done formerly in sweeping step. Once done, the deck cleared, fresh air abounded, the path made new. However, it made standard Chapter 13, in restructure of debt with respect to income, establishing a lifetime of tax obligations. But the corporate side is far more pernicious, learned only two years ago by the Jackass. It subordinated all bank assets under the derivatives owned by financial firms. The subordinated structure still exists, like senior & junior bond holders, savings accounts, certificates of deposit, mutual funds under management, money market funds, but these all lie subordinated UNDER the vast derivatives, the unregulated contracts. The updates to these laws are clear as a cloudless day in bright sunshine. The United States and United Kingdom, even Canada, have enacted laws that serve as guidelines in the preservation of the largest banks, by forcing the vanishing of private accounts. Better described, the laws offer guidelines on the death of the big banks, since they will be washed clean of assets, including those of private citizens. The insidious Bail-In Laws will catch attention. Their invocation in Cyprus was the alarm sounded. Not many Americans heard it clearly, still distracted, still dopey, still gullible, still incredulous. It could never happen here?!?"

But don't worry, there's only a few times the world GDP in outstanding derivatives that your accounts are subordinate to.  http://demonocracy.info/infographics/usa/derivatives/bank_exposure.html

"Panics do not destroy capital; they merely reveal the extent to which it has been previously destroyed by its betrayal into hopelessly unproductive works".
John Stuart Mill

11 April 2013

 Medium term back into overbought territory.  Lagging the Dow substantially.

Short term getting very overbought again.  Dow is also the upper end of its channel.

"The liberties of people never were, or never will be secure, when the transactions of their rulers may be concealed from them."
-- Patrick Henry 

10 April 2013

 Medium term will be bouncing higher as it lags the move in the short term indicator.

Short term back in overbought territory.

The McClellan is also lagging the Dow and S&P and remains at historically high levels.

This is truly a remarkable run.  Kudos to the money printers.  I never believed wealth could be created from nothing, but the past few years have proved otherwise.

"To combat depression by a forced credit expansion is to attempt to cure the evil by the very means which brought it about; because we are suffering from a misdirection or production, we want to create further misdirection- a procedure which can only lead to a much more severe crisis as soon as the credit expansion comes to an end."
-- Fredrich Hayek, 1933

Is Hayek right?  The only way I see the forced credit expansion stopping is once the US loses reserve currency status.

9 April 2013

Will the Fed crap all over the rally in tomorrow's minutes?  We'll see.

"Gold still represents the ultimate form of payment in the world. Fiat money in extremis is accepted by nobody. Gold is always accepted."
-- Alan Greenspan, May 20, 1999 

8 April 2013

7 April 2013 (Gold Versus Nasdaq bubble)

Lots of people are saying the gold and silver runs are done.  When compared to the Nasdaq bubble, they still look fairly healthy.  The gold miners have experienced yet another substantial pullback.  Oil remains elevated.

 Buying climaxes are on the rise again.

 New lows seem to be starting to climb while new highs go the opposite way.  Quite perplexing considering the indexes are still within all time highs.

 Long term remains disgustingly overbought.

 Short term's decline slowed a bit on Friday.  Mostly oversold.

Medium term is neutral to slightly oversold.

"When the metabolic pathways of the steroid hormones were being worked out, an experimenter perfused an isolated ovary with blood. When the amount of cholesterol in the blood pumped into the ovary was increased, the amount of progesterone in the blood leaving the ovary increased proportionately. In the healthy organism, cholesterol is constantly being synthesized, and constantly converted into steroid hormones, and, in the liver, into the bile salts that are secreted to emulsify fats in the intestine. Thyroid hormone and vitamin A are used in the process of converting cholesterol into pregnenolone, the immediate precursor of progesterone and DHEA. Anything that interfered with these processes would be disastrous for the organism. The supply of cholesterol, thyroid and vitamin A must always be adequate for the production of steroid hormones and bile salts. When stress suppresses thyroid activity, increased cholesterol probably compensates to some extent by permitting more progesterone to be synthesized.

In very young people, the metabolic rate is very high, and the rapid conversion of cholesterol into pregnenolone, DHEA, and progesterone usually keeps the level of cholesterol in the blood low. In the 1930s, a rise in the concentration of cholesterol was considered to be one of the most reliable ways to diagnose hypothyroidism (1936 Yearbook of Neurology, Psychiatry, and Endocrinology, E.L. Sevringhaus, editor, Chicago, p. 533). With aging, the metabolic rate declines, and the increase of cholesterol with aging is probably a spontaneous regulatory process, supporting the synthesis of the protective steroids, especially the neurosteroids in the brain and retina."

-Ray Peat.

4 April 2013

1 over 3:  bounced some from oversold conditions
3 over 8:  nearing a tighter than usual lower bollinger band.
5 over 13:  neutral
8 over 21:  slightly overbought.

I apologize for the hiatus.  A work project has been wrapping up so a lot of time has gone to that.  I should be around more in the near future.

Thanks for your support.