29 June 2013

 My longer term indicators are still in fairly high territory.  Short term has bounced as well.

 The McClellan is oversold.  It has broken out of its upward trending motion.  This represents severe inside selling that isn't readily apparent in the Dow Jones thirty.  Any rally after this failing to achieve new highs should represent a significant peak and precede extreme selling.

 Short term has rallied all the way back to overbought territory.  The bipolar gambling attitudes of traders never seems to leave.

Selling Climaxes are getting high again.

Gold and silver continue to be smashed.  Most charts I look at show them to be oversold.  However, I won't be buying until they break out of this downtrend.

"In the Colonies, we issue our own paper money. It's called 'Colonial Scrip.' We issue it to pay the government's approved expenses and charities. We make sure it's issued in proper proportion to make the goods pass easily from the producers to the consumers. In other words, we make sure there is always adequate money in circulation for the needs of the economy.

"In this manner, by creating ourselves our own paper money, we control its purchasing power, and we have no interest to pay, to anyone. You see, a legitimate government can both spend and lend money into circulation, while banks can only lend significant amounts of their promissory bank notes, for they can neither give away nor spend but a tiny fraction of the money the people need. Thus, when your bankers here in England place money in circulation, there is always a debt principal to be returned and usury to be paid. The result is that you have always too little credit in circulation to give the workers full employment. You do not have too many workers, you have too little money in circulation, and that which circulates, all bears the endless burden of unpayable debt and usury."
-- Benjamin Franklin

27 June 2013

 Medium term is severely lagging the index.

Short term is bouncing hard.  Back into positive territory.

"Don’t you know, there are some things that can beat smartness and foresight? Awkwardness and stupidity can. The best swordsman in the world doesn’t need to fear the second best swordsman in the world; no, the person for him to be afraid of is some ignorant antagonist who has never had a sword in his hand before; he doesn’t do the thing he ought to."
Mark Twain

26 June 2013

While medium term is oversold, it appears that it no longer is in its increasing channel since August of 2011.  While this may seem like it does not matter, it does seem to appear to show strength when one is higher than the previous.  August 2011 through April of 12 is a great example. Recent local minimums are definitely in a decline recently.
Short term continues to bounce from its oversold condition.  Remember, we'd like a positive divergence between this low and the next low to show higher odds.

"Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed.
This world in arms is not spending money alone.
It is spending the sweat of its laborers, the genius of its scientists, the hopes of its children.
The cost of one modern heavy bomber is this: a modern brick school in more than 30 cities.
It is two electric power plants, each serving a town of 60,000 population.
It is two fine, fully equipped hospitals.
It is some 50 miles of concrete highway.
We pay for a single fighter with a half million bushels of wheat.
We pay for a single destroyer with new homes that could have housed more than 8,000 people.
This, I repeat, is the best way of life to be found on the road the world has been taking.
This is not a way of life at all, in any true sense. Under the cloud of threatening war, it is humanity hanging from a cross of iron."
-- Dwight D. Eisenhower, April 16 1953

25 June 2013

"Basically, what Economic Hit Men are trained to do is to build up the American empire. To create situations where as many resources as possible flow into this country, to our corporations, and our government, and in fact we've been very successful...We knew Saudi Arabia was the key to dropping our dependency, or to controlling the situation. And we worked out this deal whereby the Royal House of Saud agreed to send most of their petro-dollars back to the United States and invest them in U.S. government securities...The House of Saud would agree to maintain the price of oil within acceptable limits to us, which they've done all of these years, and we would agree to keep the House of Saud in power as long as they did this, which we've done, which is one of the reasons we went to war with Iraq in the first place...So we make this big loan, most of it comes back to the United States, the country is left with the debt plus lots of interest, and they basically become our servants, our slaves. It's an empire. There's no two ways about it. It's a huge empire. It's been extremely successful...This empire, unlike any other in the history of the world, has been built primarily through economic manipulation, through cheating, through fraud, through seducing people..."
-- John Perkins, "Confessions of an Economic Hitman"

24 June 2013

 Short term remains oversold.

Medium term is approaching oversold territory.

A rumor should be floated any time soon of some kind of bailout that will induce a short term rally.

I'm concerned at how the plundering of risk assets hasn't been enough fear to drive demand for treasuries, yet.

23 June 2013

Short and medium term are a little oversold.  The 13 / 34 has been so non-volatile lately that the bollinger bands are very tight.

"Currency warfare is the most destructive form of economic warfare."
Harry Dexter White, US Representative to Bretton Woods, 1944

20 June 2013

As you might suspect, we are oversold in the shortest term.  Due to the tightening bollinger bands, it appears we are currently oversold in my 3 day indicator, but we are not at previous lows in it.

The medium term indicator appears to have broken down out of its uptrend of higher lows since 2011.

The composite indicator of all time frames is in neutral territory.  It also appears to have broken down out of its trendline.

Sorry I was out of town again this week.

17 June 2013

 Long term insanely overbought.

 Medium bounced a little today.

Short term bounced a little today.

13 June 13

 Medium term is slightly oversold.

Short term has increased the past week.

Unfortunately, I don't have exact data for the last three days so that's why there are straight lines for those dates.  I am sorry.

Short term is slightly oversold in this view.  Medium term neutral.  Long term remains insanely overbought.  My composite indicator appears to have broken its uptrend.

9 June 2013

I probably won't be able to update this the next three days.  I apologize.

6 June 2013

 Medium term (lagging) still declining.  Not oversold.

Short term bounced pretty hard today.  You can't really see it, but it's right next to the descending line.

5 June 2013

 Long term remains insanely overbought.

 Medium term is neutral.

Short term is oversold.

4 June 2013

 Medium term declined more rapidly today.

Same for short term.  We are getting into oversold territory.

3 June 2013

1 June 2013 (Gold versus Nasdaq)

 Medium term remains in decline.

Short term didn't fall below previous low.  Remains somewhat oversold.

Looks like gold and silver are pulling back to the Nasdaq like they did in 2008.  We will have to wait and see what this holds.  Oil remains stubbornly high.  It could break out heavily to the upside or downside out of this coiling pattern.