31 July 2012

 The summation index for the short term indicator is not agreeing with the Dow's rise the last two weeks.

The medium term summation index looks tenuous at best.


"Successful crime is dignified with the name of virtue; the good become the slaves of the wicked; might makes right; fear silences the power of the law."
Lucius Annaeus Seneca

30 July 2012

Bulls:  Not overbought in the long term.  Bears:  Significant divergence between this peak and the previous.

Bears:  Significant divergence between previous peak and current value.

Bulls:  Beat most recent peak.  Still lagging peak from three weeks ago.

"The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary."
H.L. Mencken

29 July 2012

It should be no surprise that the shortest term indicator is overbought.  The rest are showing divergences with previous peaks, but it hasn't rolled over yet so there is still time.  I've been noticing that a lot of the weaker stocks have been outperforming on this latest small cycle.  That tells me (I've discussed this theory in previous posts) that the cycle that began in June is possibly nearing completion. Each valley in my indicators usually see about 3 to 4 stages.  The initial valley has the strongest stocks bottom first.  The last usually finally is when sector rotation puts money in those that did not respond in the first few.

See SAN, BBVA for examples.