3 Jan 2013

The third pane is interesting.  We are steadily having lower peaks much like what happened in 2006 / 2007.

My composite indicator is about as overbought as its ever been.  I've gotta admit, it is impressive work Bernanke.  You've got everyone into one side of the boat.  When will it capsize?


"When I despair, I remember that all through history the ways of truth and love have always won.
There have been tyrants, and murderers, and for a time they can seem invincible, but in the end they always fall.
Think of it--always"
Mahatma Gandhi

2 Jan 2013

 It looks like most times my indicator busted its upper bollinger band were during bad times.  I'm not sure if this is the same, but this move has been very fast.  I was a day early last week when I said we may see a rally.  Either way, I didn't trade it so I can't be too proud.

 Medium term is still lagging its previous peak. This can accompany new highs in the indexes as we have seen before.

Short term is nearing all time highs as pointed out earlier in my other version of this chart.

I remember reading that rapid changes in the VIX, either up or down, do not bode well for markets, shortly thereafter.  Someone did  a study on it and the data was decent.  I do not have the link otherwise I would share it.  If a visitor has it, please provide it in the comment.  Yes, I've been bearish for a while.  I don't know if I will ever be proven right.  My indicators work if you don't listen to my thoughts.

1 Jan 2013

 The shortest term is back overbought.  A solid bounce has taken place in the other time frames as well.

 The medium term summation index is decidedly negative compared to previous peaks.

The short term summation index still lags the most recent peak.  This is only a correlation with the Dow.

As for the oh, so, terrifying fiscal cliff, only politicians could claim doing more of the same (printing and spending instead of taxing and spending) is a solution.  I'm glad that they lived up their chance to be in the limelight and feel important be wasting two weeks to do what anyone with a brain expected them to do...kick the can.

The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary. H. L. Mencken 

Ron Paul is still right.  More deficit spending, more erosion of civil liberties.