Sunday, January 30, 2011

30 January 2011

 Medium term:  seems bearish
Short term:  seems bearish
Contrarian hold long short-term signal.  I usually don't share this one because it doesn't do much for me.  The purpose was to find stuff that is saying to hold-long from price action (as in the chart immediately above it) that has all technical indicators (MACD, BOP, MS, TSV) bearish.  Notice it usually spikes near bottoms (as prices go up before indicators), but can give a signal on premature bounces too - like in May.

Percent of stocks two standard deviations below 200 day moving average seems to be quite strong. 
McClellan's cycle indicator (middle works well for this) still trending negatively.  Peaks still very divergent from November and May.  Note that while the indexes can go higher and they have been, most stocks have not been.  That is the key takeaway.  I'm not trying to predict where the Dow goes (because its only 30 companies), I'm trying to predict where most other stocks go.  To be fair, they are influenced by the major indexes, but only to a certain extent.

And last but not least, I said sometime in December that I would create my own buying climax scan.  This happens when a stock makes a new high sometime within a given week and closes that five day period under where it was five days earlier.  In programming speak, High (within last five days) > High (within last 260 days) AND Close (today) < Close (five days earlier).  Anyways, last Monday - only run on Mondays, this scan produced 679 buying climaxes, the highest number by a factor of two that I have seen since I started in December.  I'd show you the data, but its so short that its not that impressive.

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