6 April 2010

 VIX still hasn't reached my lower support line.  You can see the descending line I posted last week near the top of the chart.

 Sector rotation is boosting this.

Some stronger stuff has fallen into consolidation patterns as weaker stuff has begun to be bid up.

Case in point:  NBG and AIB.  Once the weak stuff gets moving, the move is nearly over, but usually there is enough time for the weak stuff to try to catch-up and consolidate while the strong stuff to has one last push.  The market amuses me.  It appears that it believes in the short-term that this bailout, not the seemingly twenty before, is going to work this time.  I'm going to wager it won't, but not yet.

If you can't pay debt, you can't pay it no matter how much more debt you add to it in the short-term or what taxes you intend to collect on people that already can't pay.  You can devalue your currency and pay it, but the EU countries cannot do this as easily as the US.  This game can only last as long as commodity prices stay down, and they aren't any more.

"You have enemies? Good. That means you've stood up for something, sometime in your life."
-- Winston Churchill