Thursday, May 5, 2011

5 May 2011

I'll keep it brief tonight.  The miners got hit hard again today - SVM broke that support line.  I guess my original idea (they were lagging recently so I was unsure of what that meant while the metals went ever higher) that they lead the metals and stock indexes has turned out true, despite me questioning it recently and having to cut a few losses.  I cut losses when the original premises for which I bought/sold end up changing (e.g. broke through long-term support line or failed to break out of a pattern). 
 Percent of stocks 2 std below 40 day moving average is jumping.
 New high for my selling climax indicator (1016 versus 1014 previously).
 Medium-term heading south, but still above 50.
Short-term hold short at 73%.   Nearing what I consider a safe area for a short-term bounce - I wouldn't be chasing any shorts here - there likely will be better entries.

GDX sitting atop the line that connects its two previous tops.  This should be resistance, but we don't buy until we have some confirmation of a trend change.  It did break its ascending trendline, so either way, it is weaker than it was.

I was looking at the long term SLV chart because this massacre looks so insane after such a run-up.  However, when SLV topped in 2008, it fell from a little over 20 to around 16 within a few week's time.  This is about 25%.  Currently, the pullback is around 28% while rounding.  I always find it interesting in long-term bull markets how inconsequential all the previous rises and falls appear compared to the latest rise.

Oh, and the initial claims numbers do not look good - the downtrend in the chart has been broken - see my Current Long Term Outlook page.  I do find it humorous how people who say to not trust government data start to point at it when it does align with their bias.

"We have four boxes with which to defend our freedom: the soap box, the ballot box, the jury box, and the cartridge box."

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