Thursday, June 2, 2011

2 June 2011

 HL at 45%.  Not yet oversold.
 HL at 40%.  Same
I don't show this one a whole lot because I thought it was pretty useless, but I still kept the data to see if zooming out would help with time.  What I had found was that when things were getting oversold, the "All Sell" signal seemed to get thrown as you can see on the two biggest spikes on this chart.  This is every technical indicator I use (MACD, MS, TSV, BoP) and the price giving bearish signals or vice versa for the bullish case.  It appears that the "All buy" actually was fairly decent last summer.  We have yet to have an "all buy" spike or a huge spike of the "All sell" on this decline.

As I predicted a while ago, things would mostly remain quiet - not many large panics to either side - until the VIX broke out of its triangle.  Things are lining up nicely that that might occur in July after QE2 ends.  Next minor Bradley turning point is June 15.  Next major turning point is July 29.

 I created new scans for Hold Long/Short - Long term which will give the percent of stocks with the 50 day EMA over/under the 200 day EMA.  Shockingly, the first data point is a whopping 73% hold long - that means there is strength or plenty of room to fall once the time comes.

"In times of change learners inherit the earth; while the learned find themselves beautifully equipped to deal with a world that no longer exists."
Eric Hoffer

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