Monday, August 22, 2011

22 Aug 2011

 Appears to be an unsuccessful challenge.  This will still take time though.  See last summer.
Still oversold in the short term.  Appears to be slowing.

 New lows at an extreme divergence from the last peak.
Hold long long term still falling.  Unfortunately, don't have much historical data for this.  I'm going to guess
 extremes are probably 70% and up.

There are some indicators that some stocks are starting to have less violent declines (not necessarily strengthen).  I don't anticipate our economic woes to be solved at all any time soon, and we still aren't at extremely cheap levels.  Therefore, if we buy anything, we are mainly looking for medium term profits.

This is a big surprise to me:$BDI&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p59175130721

GDX has decisively broken out of the trendline that was forming a head and shoulders.  The bearish pattern which has seemingly turned into a bullish launching pattern.  Pay no attention to the black box on the left...
As hard as it may seem to believe in buying here, even if gold reaches the plateau I predicted of $2000 before a consolidation, these miners will start producing more of the higher grade reserves at higher prices causing their earnings to increase greatly.

RJA has also broken out of its negative trendline.

"…the United States has experienced high rates of inflation in the past and appears to be running the same type of fiscal policies that engendered hyperinflations in 20 countries over the past century."
-- Laurance Kotlikoff, Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis "Review", July/Aug 2006

"Bankruptcies of governments have, on the whole, done less harm to mankind than their ability to raise loans."
-- R. H. Tawney, Religion and the Rise of Capitalism, 1926

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