14 Feb 2012

The fighter in the market still seems to be alive despite internal weakness. 

I think Daneric was right last week when he said the Dow will likely be drawn to 13K before a top starts forming.

 The percent of stocks with the 50 day over the 200 day is slowly creeping higher again.  Despite new highs in the indexes, you can see this is still lagging.

 The medium term still declined today despite the day end rally.

The short term declined, but not as much as it would have if the market closed mid-day.  If this bounces back into overbought territory (it appears it might based upon some more Greek rumors), that will give both bears and bulls a terrific spot to sell.  The McClellan also declined today, but can't get much higher either way.

From a seasonal perspective, February is usually the second worst month.  I would not be surprised to see a mild pullback that lasts into March.  March will likely form a bottom for a rally into May that will be more narrow then this recent rally.  Then the summer should be weak again.  That is just how I am feeling based upon current levels of indicators and memories.  I have no idea if it is right.

Treasuries are still on their plateau.  Free money everywhere or is it fear?  Or both?


""Gentlemen, I have had men watching you for a long time and I am convinced that you have used the funds of the Bank to speculate in the breadstuffs of the country. When you won, you divided the profits amongst yourselves, and when you lost, you charged it to the Bank (me:  Second Bank of the United States). Beyond question this great and powerful institution has been actively engaged in attempting to influence the elections of the public officers by means of its money..

You tell me that if I take the deposits from the Bank and annul its charter, I shall ruin ten thousand families. That may be true, gentlemen, but that is your sin. Should I let you go on, you will ruin fifty thousand families, and that would be my sin. You are a den of vipers and thieves. I intend to rout you out, and by the grace of the Eternal God, I will rout you out." "
 President Andrew Jackson