22 Feb 2012

 Long term indicator still climbing.  Not nearly at old highs (not much data)

 Medium term still declining.

 Short term resumed downturn.

Cumulative volume nowhere near new highs.  Many other sources have been talking about the phantom volume lately.

 As two of my favorites, gold and silver, have heated up again, I thought I would put charts.  I'm glad to see gold go up personally, but I hate to understand the implications/causes and knowing I don't have much of it.  Anyways, we brought you pretty close to buying at the last low spot in mid December.   We like to buy at the lower bollinger bands, not the upper. 

So once again, I will call people crazy like I was doing when silver was doing it last year.  Its fun to chase, but it is not prudent.  Here we are at the upper 3 standard deviation bollinger band.  We could keep going higher in the short term, but the odds are getting more stacked against us.  On the bright side, we seemingly broke out of the white resistance line.  However, we are now up against an old support line.

Silver remains in its channel as defined by the white and green lines.  The yellow is another old support that should serve as resistance.  We are also near the upper 3 standard deviation bollinger band.

As always, remain calm when making decisions. 


"... over a protracted period of good times, capitalist economies tend to move from a financial structuredominated by hedge finance units to a structure in which there is large weight to units engaged in speculative and Ponzi finance. Furthermore, if an economy with a sizeable body of speculative financial units is in an inflationary state, and the authorities attempt to exorcise inflation by monetary constraint, then speculative units will become Ponzi units and the net worth of previously Ponzi units will quickly evaporate. Consequently,units with cash flow shortfalls will be forced to try to make position by selling out position. This is likely to lead to a collapse of asset values."
-- Hyman Minsky