Thursday, February 9, 2012

9 Feb 2012

I discovered that the Summation Index in my charting software must be computed differently from that on  It doesn't make that much of a difference, but the following links show that we are still below or very close to the previous all time high.

As Denninger pointed out today, Apple is doing the heavy lifting for the Nasdaq.  I don't do Elliot Wave, but this move up for it looks like a solid fifth wave.  It's rate of climb is higher than most other times during this bull market which implies a possible euphoric ending move.  Based on the pennant drawn below, we are nearly at its target which looks to be near 500 - a nice round resistance number.

This is one reason I was apprehensive to calling the previous bull completely over, most leaders did not end euphorically at that time - they just stopped and stayed flat. Although, GOOG is back within the triangle I drew months ago. 

To show just how weak the rest of the Nasdaq is, see above.

 Another long term chart.  This time National Bank of Greece at long term resistance.  Will it break out now that the n-th bailout is negotiated?  Greece is going to default.  They are just playing the game for as long as the rest of the Europeans will keep loaning the fiat into existence for them.  Once they won't or the measures are "too much," they will just default. 

 Medium term struggling to keep extending itself.
 Short term notable weakness despite indexes levitating.  We will have to watch to see how this reacts at its recent low (if it reaches it).
 I don't share this indicator a lot because some sites charge good money for it.  As you can see, it worked pretty well for spotting the bottom and previous tops.  One problem with it is that it is not proportional to the number of highs/lows reached in the previous weak.  We are at 240 now, but that looks meaningless until you see the context.

As you can see below, we only had 585 highs last week.  This means that half of those were buying climaxes (reached a new 52 week high within the last five days, and then closed below the close from five days prior).  The raw number of 300 doesn't say much without knowing that.  I am thinking of a way to automate this in my other software package, and will probably do so this weekend.

You shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you mad.
Aldous Huxley

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