Sunday, March 11, 2012

11 Mar 2012 (Gold vs Nasdaq vs Crude vs Silver vs USAGX update) and Energy Consumption Update

 The gold miners have been coming back to reality for some time now.  How much longer will that continue?
WTIC has recently pulled back ahead in performance of silver, but also has a substantial headstart in terms of time.  All are still outpacing the Nasdaq's performance at this point in time.

 The data only goes through November 2011.  I estimated December 2011 usage using December's proportion of 2010 to 2010's total.
This includes the estimated December 2011 amount.  We are definitely still seeing consistent weakness in this data set.
Now for the Shiller data.  The first of each pair are using his unaltered data.  The second of each pair are using my interpolated Shadowstats CPI that I presented here about a month ago.

"Don't try to buy at the bottom and sell at the top. It can't be done except by liars."
Bernard Baruch 

 Dividend yield for both views remains at almost record lows.
 The second shows that interest rates could decline more using shadowstats CPI instead of the official.  PE ratios appear to be more dear than historically cheap as well.

"It is even harder for the average ape to believe that he has descended from man."
H. L. Mencken 

This one shows the most drastic difference between the two charts.  Earnings reached all time lows in 2008/2009.  It also shows the trend of the S&P increasing from 1921 onward, but a near break during the last recession.  The price is nearly at the exact point where the 1929 bubble burst.

 Both the McClellan Summation index and its RSI have backed off highs while the indexes remain near highs.  This shows weakening internals that will eventually surface in the indexes.  Neither indicate extreme oversold or overbought conditions.
The shortest term indicators have rapidly reversed their decline.

"Millions saw the apple fall, but Newton was the one who asked why." 
Bernard Baruch 

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