Thursday, March 15, 2012

15 Mar 2012

Apple (AAPL) is right up against its 3rd standard deviation Bollinger Band, and actually had a very weak day today challenging and failing at $600.  This usually isn't a good sign for any asset.  Silver did this during its steep run-up last year.  I couldn't believe that I saw fund managers on Yahoo Finance saying that this is still extremely undervalued.  I guess it was also extremely undervalued at $150?  We just didn't hear about it as much then?
 Long term hold long nearing previous high...sorry I don't have data from before that time.
 Hold long medium term still rebounding from its massive decline.  I feel like a complete moron for disobeying what I've noticed in the past.  This is much much more accurate for predicting the direction of the indexes when one peak is less than the previous peak or one valley is higher than the previous valley.  You can see this in April 10, November 10, May 11 and July 11.
New highs still lagging.  I feel like a broken record, but I haven't quit yet.
This declined today, but not as rapidly as yesterday.  It is surprising to see persistent weakness in most breadth indicators, but it is not showing up in the indexes.

Tomorrow is a Bradley turn-point.  Who knows if it will matter.  Previous turn points marked some changes..28 Dec 11 marked near the point where assets really took off.  31 July 11 marked the US downgrade.  17 Feb 11 marked the beginning of the Libyan crisis.

I have to figure out how I am going to pay my taxes on my capital gains from last year..  I also am concerned that my elderly neighbor has died.  She has not left her apartment in four days (something is stuck in her door handle).  I will check tomorrow.

"To buy when others are despondently selling and sell when others are greedily buying requires the greatest fortitude and pays the greatest reward."

"Bull markets are born in pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die of euphoria."
 Sir John Templeton 


  1. Hi Scott: could you please note what HL-LT is? Thanks!

  2. HL-LT is hold long long term. It is calculated by dividing the number of stocks with a 50 day simple moving average above the 200 day simple moving average by the total amount of stocks in the stock market. As of right now, 70% are in this situation.