20 May 2012

Unfortunately a lot of the indicators people post don't include more than a few years.  These go back to 2006 and capture one of the worst bear markets in US history.

As you can see, we have reached extreme oversold levels for all my short (days) and medium (weeks) term indicators.  At times in the past, they did stay around these levels for more than a few days, but generally the spikes downwards are much more narrow than the peaks.

Now all the bulls need is a catalyst..typically a bailout or a rumor of some sort does the trick.

Remember that very strong short and medium term rallies can and do occur even during bear markets.  More often than not, they are stronger than actual bull market rallies in terms of percent increase.