Tuesday, May 22, 2012

22 May 2012

A good friend asked me about buying gold soon.  The long term maroon descending trendline will have to be overcome for a confident buy, but not one at the best price level as the price has to rise to go through it.

The blue line (50% retracement from the 2008 to 2011 move, target from pennant formation, and resistance from 2010) is the one I picked a long time ago as the bottom for this decline.  I don't know if we will make it before the currency debauchers come out again in June.

Slow stochastics (not pictured) are no longer oversold like they were when the recent bounce in gold started.

All in all, it is still a better price than the 2011 high.  It just depends how picky you want to be.

While we're at it, I wanted to look at silver.  We are very close to the 24 target I specified months ago.  I believe I came up with it from the pennant formation during early 2011 and using fibonacci retracements.

As part of a maturing bull market, the yellow support line must be broken to the downside before we can establish a steeper ascending trendline.  The 23.6% retracement line is around 23.58.

Yes, I know GLD and SLV are not really gold and silver. I recommend physical holdings (maybe physical ETFs) if/when buying the metals.
The shortest term indicators have bounced quite strongly off of lows.  The medium term indicators all remain oversold.

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