29 June 2012

25 June 2012

Substantially above previous lows which could be seen as a good or bad thing.  It will be good once this bottoms again and turns up..especially if the "bottom" is above the previous one.

Weak day.  Still not in the "panic" zone.

24 June 2012

 Medium term had a sharp decline Thursday followed by a slight uptick Friday.  Plenty of room to fall.

 Short term almost beneath most recent valley.  Also plenty of room to fall.

All but the shortest term and the longest term have some room to fall.

21 June 2012

There will probably not be a post tonight.

19 June 2012

Nearing upper limits for shorter time frames.

 I didn't double check, but the reading today on the McClellan Oscillator today looks like the highest ever.  The lines are moving averages that don't reflect today's value yet.  I put a line at the top showing how extreme it is.

 Short term excel chart up at 80%.  Is this sustainable?

 Medium term summation index just started to try heading upwards.

Short term summation index is  not keeping up with the Dow which has ascended at a 75 degree angle.

It seems like a lot of people are expecting great news from Bernanke tomorrow.  What happens if he doesn't provide?  What happens if he does provide, but it still doesn't beat what seems to be extremely high expectations?

18 June 2012

 Slight slowing in the medium term increase.  Back at the descending trendline from the recent peaks.

Short term slowed today.  Current peak is quite a bit lower than the recent peak.

Some possibility exists for bearishness.  We will have to see what the Fed unveils this week.

16 June 2012

What a difference a few weeks makes.  

I don't think much has changed fundamentally.  Spain and Italy, the countries, are still in a lot of trouble with very high yields on their bonds.  Yes, there was some a baby bailout for Spain's banks, but I expect we'll see with time that it was not enough.

Although large amounts of paper currency can temporarily fix balance sheets, no amount of money freshly lent into existence money will fix a societal problem.  The European nations are not the only ones that promise life, if we want to call blind consumerism that, with minimal in return.  I also am tired in reading how people want to get back to the "good old days" while referring to bubble years or years leading to a bubble.  The aftermath we are dealing with now is because of that bubble.  It caused many to lose their jobs, lose their homes, and the worst, lose hope in something they truly believed in...American "Capitalism."

In the end, we found out it was all a big lie.  On top of that, we wasted tons of natural resources building all the homes and malls which are now overgrown lots and vacant stores that are driven by with frowns.  Imagine if we used that money to build things that improve life.

I don't think enough is written about the negative effects of credit creation.  I frequently am told that "banks create jobs by funding opportunities," "they provide funding for small businesses," or that "they lend to the government."  Yes, I guess those are all true.  But those are the seen effects, what of the unseen effects?

Funding opportunities by inflating the money supply might cause someone else to go hungry or have to keep the thermostat a little lower.  It might cause revolutions over food prices in third world countries.  It might starve more Africans than were already starving.

Funding small businesses that should not be funded causes misallocation of capital and human labor..it might even cause someone to overestimate their ability to open a business.  After spending all of one's lifes' accrued savings on a bad investment, but the bank agreed to make the loan as they had no risk (banks create the loans out of nothing), imagine the destitution this leaves.

Think of all the kids with huge student loans that will not be able to pay it back.  These loans were the result of easy credit.  The high tuitions and tons of university structures wouldn't exist without this credit.  Think of the governments promising what they can't deliver causing an entire generation to forget how to work or even forget what is productive work.

Think of all of those who can deliver something useful to society, but have been conditioned that all they need to do is be alive.  And here we are at the last gasp...the funding was there to keep people placated, buy votes, and make them think there was such a thing as wealth without labor.  The promises are undeliverable. The piper needs to be paid.  It will be paid with defaults or by extreme inflation.  There is no such thing as a free lunch in a world with fixed resources.  The ending of the current banking system seems to be a naturally occurring evolutionary death.  Maybe easy credit is not needed for non-developing nations.

14 June 2012

 Medium term had a nice increase today.

 Medium term summation index is still decreasing as long as it is in negative territory.

 Short term decline slowed dramatically.  Will it reverse back up?

Short term summation index is definitely not increasing as the rate the Dow is.

13 June 2012

 Medium term edged higher .01 today.

Showing some significant persistent weakness in the short term.

As I was flying back from my trip, I noticed almost everyone on their electronic devices playing angry birds, texting, or doing some other form of entertainment.  I appreciate leisure and think it has a very necessary part of life, and understand that everyone wants to derive their own experience from this life..whatever it may be.

The thing that concerns me is that I see very few books, very little learning about history, very little learning about what it took to make those devices.  Whenever this crisis finally comes to an end, will we have people with the right set of skills and knowledge to rebuild?  Will the empty enjoyment of mindless pursuits no longer bring smiles to faces?  Is all of this simply to escape the "painful" existence of being human?  I love being alive.  I love dirtiness.  I love that we aren't perfect and the world isn't perfect.  How boring that would be!  Must be like heaven...or hell if they did exist.  There is nothing to escape.

The fact that I exist is against all odds, and that alone is worth relishing.  My ancestors survived the bitter cold of Norway and somehow found a mate tolerable with which to have kids.  This hunk of rock and metal is hurtling through space around a fireball.  And that fireball and billions others are circling a gigantic black hole which will eventually consume everything we know as earth, and that will be ruthlessly formed into something else.  I can experience learning, happiness, sadness, laughter, love...something all of this lifeless stuff, as far as we know, cannot.

Enjoy it..even if your way of enjoying it is different than mine.  I guess a world that I consider perfect, where everyone had the same interests as me, would be worse than it is. Just make sure you aren't trying to escape it.

12 June 2012

 A good increase in the medium term today to start getting us back to more "normal" territory.

 This still slightly decreased surprisingly.  I was expecting a bounce that would fail below recent highs.

Many indicators still remain neutral.  Shorter term we are still remaining a bit overbought as any good dead cat bounce would do.  The question is when does it end.

11 June 2012

 Still in overbought territory.

Medium term's ascent slowed somewhat today.  We will have to watch how low it gets if it does roll back over again.

Sorry for no post last week.  The short term indicator would have been useful.  I have been traveling.

6 June 2012

 Short term is bouncing hard, but still only in neutral territory.

Good bounce on medium term.  I would have liked to see more divergence between these bottoms like we did from August to October of last year.


It is worse still to be ignorant of your ignorance.
Saint Jerome

5 June 2012

I'd like to welcome any first time visitors, and thank Charles Hugh Smith for using some of my material.  I usually keep the comments light and focus on the charts.  I use them to determine buying/selling points with better odds.  I generally use them in a contrarian sense.  Hold long at a high level means sells.  Hold long at a low level means buy.

Long term still producing high readings.  However, this is generally a lagging indicator.

 Medium term oversold still.

Short term appears to be "bottoming" at a higher point than previous and remains oversold.

I am encouraged by this, but I still think there might be another roach somewhere.


"It is an old maxim and a very sound one, that he that dances should always pay the fiddler. Now, sir, in the present case, if any gentlemen, whose money is a burden to them, choose to lead off a dance, I am decidedly opposed to the people’s money being used to pay the fiddler…all this to settle a question in which the people have no interest, and about which they care nothing. These capitalists generally act harmoniously, and in concert, to fleece the people, and now, that they have got into a quarrel with themselves, we are called upon to appropriate the people’s money to settle the quarrel."

Abraham Lincoln in a January 11, 1837 Speech in the Illinois Legislature Concerning the State Bank

4 June 2012

 Medium term is nearing recent lows, but has not broken them.  This is a divergence between it and the Dow.

The same applies for the short term.  The decline slowed today significantly.

I closed short sales today.  I am guessing I am a little early, but I don't want to gamble with it.


The bravest are the tenderest. The loving are the daring.
Henry Wadsworth Longfellow

3 June 2012 (Gold vs Nasdaq v Silver v Crude USAGX)

Is crude making a cup with handle or a double top?  Silver, gold and USAGX are coming back into crude's performance at this point.

I read a lot about how a collapse might happen soon, but the way I see it, the collapse (this part of it - sums of smaller collapses make bigger collapses) has mostly already happened.  See the index itself at low values, long term RSI at low values, and the difference between it and its 21 moving average at low values.

Short term is heading back to recent lows but is still above it which conflicts with the new low made by the largely watched indices.

Medium term hasn't made a new low yet and remains oversold.

The longer term and composite (weights all time frames equally) indicators are starting to reach low levels.


A stout man's heart breaks bad luck.
Miguel de Cervantes