Friday, July 6, 2012

5 July 2012

Zerohedge reported many interest rate cuts today.  In fact, Denmark now has a NIRP (negative interest rate policy) meaning you pay banks to keep your money there.  Yes, can't make this stuff up.  Negative real interest rates provide fuel for hard asset (gold, silver, oil, softs) bull markets.  Now we have negative nominal interest rates as well.  I suspect a lot of other central banks will keep cutting as the rest of the world's housing bubbles start to deflate.

Because this discourages saving, it is necessarily capital destructive (capital formation is necessary for business development) and aims to encourage spending, but people will not spend unwisely with an uncertain future and no savings income.  This is the problem with mainstream economics, it believes the world is rational, causal,  and oversimplifies human behavior.

"There is nothing so disastrous as a rational investment policy in an irrational world."
John Maynard Keynes

After looking at some charts of foreign countries major stock indexes, it looks like the crisis will soon be heading to France, Netherlands, and Sweden.  The reasons are the same reasons I used to determine Spain was next in April of this year.  Reggie Middleton from Zerohedge also keeps this on the radar.

Tomorrow will give us the latest unemployment data.  If bad, it could be considered good because it means more QE.  If bad, it obviously could be considered bad.  If good, it could be bad because that means no QE.  If good, it could obviously be considered good.  Follow the tape.  However, considering how overbought everything is (see below), I don't think it is worth buying regardless of what happens.  The time to buy is in the valleys, not when everyone is excited.


"To buy when others are despondently selling and sell when others are greedily buying requires the greatest fortitude and pays the greatest reward."
Sir John Templeton 

 Medium term summation index lagging heavily.
Short term overbought.
 Short term summation index is definitely not leading.  It can be considered coincident.

"While I live I will never resort to irredeemable paper."
Napoleon Bonaparte

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