Friday, January 11, 2013

10 Jan 2013

Gambling fever is hitting a crescendo.

You can see it in the daily chart of the index.  The day starts slowly and panic buying towards the ends of the days recently just drifts the close ever higher.  I've been there before, and been a buyer.  I did it in 2007 quite a bit.  It felt good being up 2 or 3 percent instantly.  A few months later when the stock was off 25% it didn't feel so good.

I have no idea when it will top, but I can tell you that odds of making money on the long side are diminishing with each melt-up day.

I closed shorts that I was up on when I was saying the market was oversold in November.  I kept open the ones I was down on and unfortunately only lightly hedged them by shorting worthless extortion-scheme ETFs like FAZ.  I should have covered all and went long, but following indicators is hard when emotions get in the way.

On the bright side and quite counter-intuitively, the more money I lose in the stock market, the more I spend.  I guess I just see that either I can buy something that makes my life better now - picked up a Champion Juicer and an electric tea kettle - or I can lose the money in the stock market.  The choice is easy.  I also bought a lot of physical gold and silver on December 27th for the same reason.
 Short term's decline slowed today.

 The medium term is slowly moving like trees reaching for the sun.  Trees never reach it.
Even my long term indicator can safely be called very overbought.  Elliot wavers might like that this last wave down was the smallest and maybe completes the pattern?  I don't really study that stuff, but this cycle looks crescendo-ish as it sucks in the last few.

"Don't bother me with facts, son. I've already made up my mind."
Foghorn Leghorn (cartoon character)

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