Friday, January 18, 2013

17 Jan 2013

 Medium term continued lower today despite the push higher in the indexes.
Its hard to see, but short term rose about 3% today.

Gold is near its downtrend resistance line and near its 200 and 50 day moving averages.  The same can mostly be said for silver.  GDX continues to tighten in its descending triangle pattern.  It also sits near long term support line connecting the lows in 2008 and 2012.

"In the economic sphere an act, a habit, an institution, a law produces not only one effect, but a series of effects. Of these effects, the first alone is immediate; it appears simultaneously with its cause; it is seen. The other effects emerge only subsequently; they are not seen; we are fortunate if we foresee them.

There is only one difference between a bad economist and a good one: the bad economist confines himself to the visible effect; the good economist takes into account both the effect that can be seen and those effects that must be foreseen.

Yet this difference is tremendous; for it almost always happens that when the immediate consequence is favorable, the later consequences are disastrous, and vice versa. Whence it follows that the bad economist pursues a small present good that will be followed by a great evil to come, while the good economist pursues a great good to come, at the risk of a small present evil."
Frederic Bastiat, "That Which Is Seen and That Which Is Unseen", 1850

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