25 Sept 13

Short term is not oversold.  Medium and long term remain overbought.

23 Sept 2013

 Long term is lagging previous peaks and it's behavior is very divergent from the Dow's since March.

 Medium term hasn't rolled over yet.  Lagging previous peaks.  Showing weakness.

Short term is not nearly oversold after a heft decline today.

"Taxes are what we pay for a civilized society."
Former Supreme Court Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes Jr.

So very true - food stamps not only buy food, they buy placation.

22 Sept 2013

 Long term very overbought.

 Medium term is high and lagging previous peaks.

Short term appears to be headed down.  Remains overbought.

"Those who are unaware they are walking in darkness, will never seek the light."
Bruce Lee

19 Sept 2013

 Even though the Summation index is rallying hard now, it still remains quite low compared to previous peaks.  It is working off the oversold condition I pointed out a few weeks ago.

 Medium term becoming overbought.

 Short term maybe rolling over in overbought territory.

This indicator usually makes new highs before or at the same time.  It hasn't made a new high yet.

18 Sept 2013

 Long term remains overbought.

 Medium term is quickly becoming overbought.

Short term made new highs today.  Remains overbought.

People make me laugh. The Fed announces that it is going to continue to create debt to hand to the government and the banks.  And this means to buy stocks at overbought levels.  If you weren't buying three weeks ago when I said my short term indicator was showing strength, you shouldn't be buying now at all time highs.  It's illogical.  Yes, you may continue to make money, but your odds of success have went down.

"When fascism come to America it will be wrapped in the flag and carrying a cross."
-- Sinclair Lewis

17 Sept 2013

 Long term:  Overbought.

 Medium term:  Nearing overbought levels (70% and higher).  Lagging previous peaks.

Short term: Overbought.  Rallied some today.

"The evils of this deluge of paper money are not to be removed until our citizens are generally and radically instructed in their cause and consequences, and silence by their authority the interested clamors and sophistry of speculating, shaving, and banking institutions. Till then, we must be content to return quoad hoc to the savage state, to recur to barter in the exchange of our property for want of a stable common measure of value, that now in use being less fixed than the beads and wampum of the Indian, and to deliver up our citizens, their property and their labor, passive victims to the swindling tricks of bankers and mountebankers."
Thomas Jefferson to John Adams, 1819. ME 15:185
Thomas Jefferson on Money & Banking 

16 Sept 2013

 Long term remains overbought.

 Medium term looks weak relative to previous peaks.

Short term's decline slowed somewhat today.

The Dow Jones move recently looks completely natural.  But hey, I did say it was oversold a few weeks ago.

15 Sept 2013

 Long term remains overbought. Trending downward the past few months though.

 Medium term is slightly positive.  Could roll over here.

 Composite (all time frames) is also overbought.

Short term is overbought, but trending negatively.

"The desire of gold is not for gold. It is for the means of freedom."
Ralph Waldo Emerson

12 Sept 2013

 Here are gold's trendlines I drew a few months ago.

 Long term remains overbought.

 McClellan Summation index actually looks like it could have substantial room to the upside considering the RSI and TSV.  However, if it rolls over, it signifies substantial weakness.

 Medium term remains mostly neutral.

 Silver rallied pretty well since my note about it being on the lower trendline.

Short term is overbought.

"Cum catapultae proscriptae erunt tum soli proscript catapultas habebunt. (When catapults are outlawed, only outlaws will have catapults.)"
Unknown

11 Sept 2013

 Long term remains overbought.

 Medium term is back in positive territory.

Short term actually went down today - an interesting development.

"To compel a man to furnish funds for the propagation of ideas he disbelieves and abhors is sinful and tyrannical."
Thomas Jefferson

10 Sept 2013

 Medium term is again neutral.

Short term is nearing overbought levels.

Oh, guess who called this rally last week?

"Bandz make her dance"
Juicy J

9 Sept 2013

Shortest term overbought.  Short term neutral to overbought. Medium term neutral. Long term overbought. Composite overbought.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage."
Anaïs Nin

8 Sept 2013

Short term neutral.  Medium term oversold.  Long term overbought.

"Nothing goes in a straight line"
Someone.

5 Sept 2013

 Medium term bouncing some.

Short term back in positive territory.

"Mundus vult decipi, ergo decipiatur."
Petronius

4 Sept 2013

 Medium term bounced some today.

Short term bounced to neutral at 50%.

"I have three precious things, which I hold fast and prize.

The first is gentleness; the second is frugality; the third is humility, which keeps me from putting myself before others. Be gentle, and you can be bold; be frugal, and you can be liberal; avoid putting yourself before others, and you can become a leader among men.

But in the present day men cast off gentleness, and are all for being bold; they spurn frugality, and retain only extravagance; they discard humility, and aim only at being first.

Therefore they shall surely perish.

Gentleness brings victory to him who attacks, and safety to him who defends. Those whom Heaven would save, it fences round with gentleness."
Lao Tzu

3 Sept 2013

 Medium and short terms remain slightly oversold.

 Medium term is slightly oversold in this view as well.

Short term is showing a positive divergence.  I warned of a potential bounce prior to further downside.  It's not guaranteed, but is certainly possible.

"In every 'nuclear disaster', radiation injured few if any people, whereas overplayed FEAR of radiation had disastrous impact, ruining the lives of thousands. A recent study showed that people who refused to evacuate Chernobyl were happier and outlived the evacuees by 20 years, while the evacuees themselves were depressed and suicidal.

There is nothing else that is as central to the issue as that one fact. It should not be skewed by unreasonable premises. In addition, the impact of unwarranted fear of radiation has caused massive avoidable use of fossil fuels, to the detriment of people and the environment."
Ted Rockwell, November 26, 2012

2 Sept 2013

Short and medium terms are oversold.
Long term remains very overbought.

"Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed. This world in arms is not spending money alone. It is spending the sweat of its laborers, the genius of its scientists, the hopes of its children. This is not a way of life at all in any true sense. Under the clouds of war, it is humanity hanging on a cross of iron.
General Dwight Eisenhower