29 April 2011

Although this post may lead one to conclude otherwise, there will be no post today through Sunday.  I will be celebrating Arbor Day by going non-digital.

Have a good weekend.  As of now, none of my main indicators have substantially changed the past two days.

"The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."
Friedrich Hayek

26 April 2011

Just charts for tonight.  It seems we are getting a little of that euphoria.  Mining stocks certainly are not participating in the equity rally despite record high prices in the metals.

19 April 2011

 My fastest oscillating TSV is getting quite low.  Less of a decline today than yesterday as expected.

 Hold short definitely has a negative divergence from the last peak for now.

Hold short has negative divergence in last three peaks.

For the bears, I wish it wasn't true, but I have to report what I see.

Still more importantly than these, we need McClellan to bottom and begin upwards.


"Impossible is a word to be found only in the dictionary of fools."
-- Napoleon Bonaparte

14 April 2011

 Definitely not bullish the past few days.  Did post a smaller decline today than yesterday and the previous day.

 Med-term slowing.

Short-term slowing.  A smaller peak than last.

Still maintaining my silver prediction of 48.50.  Gold, 1500.  Those should have some resistance.

I think that for the past few years we've had a very exciting market to each side.  It seems the time has come for some boring-ness.  I've noticed less people posting on websites than previously, and I haven't really had the urge to care about what is happening lately.  I'll still try to post as I manage my account as necessary.  Even if we bounce higher, the odds are continually shrinking that it will continue upwards.

"In times of change learners inherit the earth; while the learned find themselves beautifully equipped to deal with a world that no longer exists."
-- Eric Hoffer

7 April 2011

Edited to make more clear 8 April:  McClellan Summation Rate of change declined today, but the index itself still posted a green day indicating the current trend remains up.

Good luck.

6 April 2010

 VIX still hasn't reached my lower support line.  You can see the descending line I posted last week near the top of the chart.

 Sector rotation is boosting this.

Some stronger stuff has fallen into consolidation patterns as weaker stuff has begun to be bid up.

Case in point:  NBG and AIB.  Once the weak stuff gets moving, the move is nearly over, but usually there is enough time for the weak stuff to try to catch-up and consolidate while the strong stuff to has one last push.  The market amuses me.  It appears that it believes in the short-term that this bailout, not the seemingly twenty before, is going to work this time.  I'm going to wager it won't, but not yet.

If you can't pay debt, you can't pay it no matter how much more debt you add to it in the short-term or what taxes you intend to collect on people that already can't pay.  You can devalue your currency and pay it, but the EU countries cannot do this as easily as the US.  This game can only last as long as commodity prices stay down, and they aren't any more.

"You have enemies? Good. That means you've stood up for something, sometime in your life."
-- Winston Churchill

5 April 2011

I think that the Nikkei's dead cat bounce is over or at least close to over.

I need to see some of the breadth indexes begin rolling over before I say it with more confidence.  This applies more to the US markets, but if they don't go up, Japan definitely won't.

3 April 2011

 Picking up steam.

 

Curled over on Friday.  

Will post more tomorrow night.

Best of luck.