Monday, June 13, 2011

13 June 2011

For some reason I have been dumping my brain on the web tonight - turning into former self again.  I apologize.

I don't like to talk much on this site because I have found most knowledge transient.  I'll think I know something and then it turns out wrong.  The game almost always changes before knowledge can make me wise.  I guess wisdom could be admitting that change is the only constant.  That way I can continue learning. 

 Well, this new indicator has been quite successful for us recently.  It isn't telling us much now though.
 Medium term hold short went up a bit more today.
Short term hold short went up a bit again today. 

VIX closed outside its 2 std dev bollinger band today.  Usually a bearish signal.  It does have some momentum heading for my long-term resistance trend line.  I previously concluded that it would not break this resistance until it thoroughly tightened through July.  In the event of a failed Greek bailout, I could be eating my words.  I would say I'm sorry, but I have been bearish since February so it is not like I led you that far astray with this one prediction.
The McClellan Summation Index got destroyed today again.  Notice that the rate of change (orange) is outside its two std dev line.  I circled the peaks and current spot of the index itself because it is hard to see with the lines all over the place.  The first circle on the left is where I started getting really bearish - I'm surprised all my followers didn't stop coming as the thin indexes kept marching up for a few more months.

Oh yeah, I put together industry performance information over the weekend.  Pretty much all the leaders are medical, wholesale, or major discount chains.  This tells me we are nearing the end of the third phase and into the fourth phase (late) of economic expansion.  Every situation is different, but the odds can help give us some certainty.

Best of luck.


"A society of sheep must in time beget a government of wolves."
 Bertrand de Jouvenel

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