If Greece defaults and no one cares, will it make a "Lehman?"
For about a year, I've thought that Greece and many other countries with insurmountable debt should just default.
Granted, from a Libertarian standpoint, this doesn't pass the "every man shall do as he says he will" test. However, the money lent was created out of thin air to be lent to the Greek government. It was not truly "Capital" that belonged to someone else - well maybe 1/8th or up to 1/40th of it was. It was merely a ledger entry allowed by fractional reserve banking. How can any person, any government or any corporation pay back money that never existed until it was lent and spent?
Anyways, the slow motion train wreck of Greece has allowed most of the passengers to bail. NBG is already 1.34 a share. I'm not sure, but I'd assume most people/banks that owned the debt have already tried to sell it for whatever they can get - probably the reason new auctions are fetching 25%+.
Lehman, for most of the world, was a huge surprise - it slowly crept up and them bam, the whole world changed over night. However, a few of the people that paid a lot of attention to bank balance sheets knew it was coming and predicted such - especially one of my mentors who also predicted the BSC implosion.
Greece has now given us almost a year and a half. Slightly like Argentina from 1999 - 2002. Make sure you notice the "poverty levels" before and after the default. Also, pay attention to the statement that the gap between the top 10% and bottom 10% widened between 2001 and 2005 despite a default. I was in high school in 2002 so I really paid no attention to this. I'm sure some people reading this remember it. Keep in mind the tech bubble was also actively imploding at this time.
Best of luck. Trade with caution to both sides, and remain nimble. VIX still remains spiked out of my descending triangle.
"The ideas which now pass for brilliant innovations and advances are in fact mere revivals of ancient errors, and a further proof of the dictum that those who are ignorant of the past are condemned to repeat it."